Going into today, the indexes are faced with overhead resistance of both their 61.8% Fibonacci retracements from their July highs down to their August lows. Their 50-day moving averages lie just above that.

If the indexes manage to close firmly above yesterday's highs, it could signal a positive change in the market's bias, but the major indices clearly remain in intermediate-term downtrends until that happens.

Deron Wagner writes that the current test of the intermediate-term downtrend lines in the S&P and Nasdaq provides a very positive risk/reward ratio.

A firm closing price above the downtrend line of the S&P 500, especially on higher volume, would cause Deron Wagner to relinquish his bearish near-term bias.

On a short-term basis, a drop below yesterday's lows could trigger subsequent downward momentum that could rapidly send the major indices back down to their August 16 intraday lows.

If the main stock market indexes break out above their downtrend lines, Deron Wagner's negative short and intermediate-term biases might change.

Deron Wagner plans to patiently analyze from the sidelines, then wait for substantial bounces before selectively entering new short positions.

In the pre-market, S&P and Nasdaq futures are pointing to a large opening gap down today.

Even if the market bounced today, Deron Wagner has not come across any ETFs he would be comfortable buying.

With multiple levels of significant resistance, and just one area of support nearly 5% lower, odds favor the S&P 500 going lower before moving much higher. The intermediate-term bias remains bearish, while the short-term bias is neutral.