David Rodriguez, Quantitative Analyst for DailyFX.com, specializes in statistical studies in currency trading markets and algorithmic trading systems for Managed Accounts Programs offered by parent company FXCM. He holds a degree in Economics from Williams College with a heavy emphasis in quantitative methods and began trading financial markets in the tech boom and bust of 1999-2001. Since then his primary focus has shifted from equities to currency markets, but he continues to trade futures and futures options on a broad range of asset classes as well as currencies.
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It will be important to watch for signs of continued strength out of Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data out of various Euro Zone member states on Monday, while German IFO business confidence trends are similarly seen as a leading indicator for economic growth.
The ECB held a cautious outlook for the economy and expects banks to tightening borrowing standards further over the coming month as the financial system remains fragile.
The euro may resume its long-term downtrend as investors scrutinize a deeply flawed set of EU bank stress test results amid increasingly lacking support from the unwinding of record speculative short positions.
The euro finished the week considerably higher against the US dollar, fueled by a wave of renewed optimism and solid fundamental economic data out of the single currency zone.
The US dollar finds itself at somewhat of an impasse. On the one hand, the recent downturn in equity markets should boost the safe-haven Greenback against the euro and other key counterparts. On the other, markets seem all too willing to sell US dollars at any sign of trouble for the domestic economy.
Whether or not the US dollar continues its recent slide through the week ahead will almost certainly depend on the trajectory of the S&P and broader risk appetite.
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