When traders start returning to their desks after New Year's Day, the market should more clearly show its hand for the direction of the next intermediate-term trend.

Since Monday's lows clearly correlate to obvious levels of support, Deron Wagner's overall short and intermediate-term biases on the broad market remain cautiously bullish, as long as Monday's lows are not violated.

Deron Wagner writes that low volume markets are notorious for being whippy and choppy.

Since the week of Christmas is traditionally the slowest of the year, we may not know the real direction of the market's next move until traders return to their desks after the New Year's Day holiday.

Deron Wagner's not that excited about jumping back into a broad-based ETF during one of the traditionally lightest volume weeks of the year. Instead, he prefers ETFs with a lower correlation to broad market direction.

With the holidays fast approaching, turnover will start slowing to a crawl, creating further speculation about how the stock market will kick off the new year.

Barring any future distribution days, the short to intermediate-term outlook remains in good shape.  Note that today is "triple witching" options expiration day, so be prepared for more volatility than usual, especially in the afternoon.

Deron Wagner believes Tuesday's breakouts above the 50-day MAs should generate enough short-term momentum to lift the major indices above last week's highs within the next day or two.

For all three of the major indexes, all bets are off on the long side of the market if any of the major indices suddenly reverse to close below key support of their December 12 "swing lows."