Carry trades thrive in an environment of low volatility which means that should the VIX continue to rise, and it appears to want to, carry trades could suffer more losses.
The carry-driven sentiment in the GBP/USD pair is a bit overpowering right now so traders should keep an eye on the status of the equity markets and other FX carry trades like GBP/JPY.
This week John Mauldin looks at why there are more mortgage write downs coming (in a self-fulfilling prophecy) in the financial sector, how an obscure new accounting rule is shedding light on a lot of risk in the world's banking system, how this is all tied to the consumer and is part of the reason for the fall in the dollar.
The dollar-yen is in wave 3 within wave 3. Normally, third waves are the longest, strongest and most violent, and the action over the last 3 days proves that to be the case.
Suddenly, the question marks are back. What is the meaning of the credit crunch? Is Bernanke fighting inflation, or fighting deflation? Are stocks going up? How about the dollar? Is gold hitting another peak? And what is ANYTHING worth when EVERYTHING floats on a bubbly sea of shifting exchange rates?
Traders who thrive on volatility should not be disappointed in the week ahead because the US has an extremely heavy economic calendar that will indicate whether Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was right to be more worried about growth than inflation.
With upside inflation risks mounting, the Bank of England has already been prevented from cutting rates. Monday’s release of the UK producer price index may bring the inflation issue to the forefront once again
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