If consumer spending actually falls in the month of December, then not only is a 50bp rate cut from the Federal Reserve guaranteed, but so would a rally up to 1.50 in the EUR/USD.

When credit was expanding, offering default protection seemed like a no-brainer. But now the credit cycle has turned; credit is contracting, not expanding. And now, bonds are beginning to go bad. And so, the investor who bought a swap to protect himself turns to his insurer. Uh-oh. Here’s where it really starts to go bad. Because, real trouble rarely comes in the door alone. Typically, he comes with his drinking buddies and low-life friends.

Tuesday's US Advance Retail Sales report could lead to losses for the dollar, especially if the figures are disappointing and spark more pessimistic sentiment on the markets, as analysts judge that the US economy may already be in recession.

Currency strategist Boris Schlossberg analyzes the major currencies for the week of January 14.

In this week's video, Peter Reznicek says that it's starting to appear that gold is the place to be in 2008.

Price Headley shares a set of tips on goal setting and 12 critical resolutions that make him better at selecting trades.

Mr. Market wants to correct. But all the feds can do is to give Mr. Market more of the same medicine that made him queasy in the first place: more cash and credit. And whenever they force-feed the patient more cash and credit it causes a kind of gold fever, sending the price of gold up and driving down the dollar.

Throughout the past week, interest traders have been increasing their bets for a larger move by the Federal Reserve, which has led to widespread dollar weakness

There are signs that declines for the currency pair may be slowing, though a continuing decline may depend more upon whether the markets ramp up their bets that the BOE will opt to cut rates in February.

Mr. Market is clearly marching towards deflation – notably in the prices of houses and stocks. But the feds have a line on him. They’re pulling him in the opposite direction – inflating gold, oil and food prices. The combination of opposing ideas seems to rattle most observers. They can’t tell whether Mr. Market is coming or going.