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The Wagner Daily ETF Report for March 24
By Deron Wagner | Published  03/24/2006 | Stocks | Unrated
The Wagner Daily ETF Report for March 24

In keeping with the stock market's indeterminate nature of late, the major indices chopped around within their respective ranges of the previous day before finishing mixed across the board. Small and mid-caps outperformed, as the Russell 2000 gained 0.4% and the S&P 400 advanced 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost only 0.1%. As is typical in choppy sessions, both the S&P and Nasdaq Composite closed in the middle of their intraday ranges.

Like the previous day, turnover in both the NYSE and Nasdaq declined. Total volume in the NYSE was 1% lighter than the previous day's level, while volume in the Nasdaq was 7% lighter. Because the major indices were mixed and the volume changes were minimal, not much should be read into the impact of yesterday's volume levels. Declining volume marginally exceeded advancing volume in both exchanges, but internals were mostly mixed throughout the session.

One sector that may be worthy of buying in the near future is Gold ($GOX). The Gold Index, which has been in a primary long-term uptrend since May of 2005, has been correcting on its shorter-term daily chart since the beginning of February 2006. However, it closed yesterday right at resistance of its downtrend line and may be poised for a breakout over the next several days:

Obviously, a breakout in the $GOX would provide buying opportunities in a handful of individual gold mining stocks. But it is important to realize that GLD (streetTRACKS Gold Trust) and the commodity price of spot gold does not always lead the prices of the mining stocks. Therefore, you probably should consider making your own "synthetic ETF" by simultaneously trading a basket of the leading gold stocks. If spot gold begins to form a similar chart pattern, you can simply buy GLD, but trading individual mining stocks until then is a better bet. There are numerous stocks within the sector, but a few of the stronger ones right now include GG, MDG, GLG, and PD.

We don't want to sound like a broken record, but the reality is that there is nothing new to say about the technical state of the broad market. The major indices continue to chop around in a range with the S&P just above its breakout level of 1,295 from the February high. The Nasdaq Composite remains in a "chop fest" just above support of its 20 and 50-day moving averages. We will continue to watch for a confirmed break out of the range, which will eventually present itself. When it does, being prepared with cash in hand instead of already positioned with stocks is a much better way to tackle the situation.

Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Trader of both Morpheus Capital LP, a U.S. hedge fund, and Morpheus Trading Group, a trader education firm launched in 2001 that provides daily technical analysis of the leading ETFs and stocks.  For a free trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily or to learn about Wagner's other services, visit MorpheusTrading.com or send an e-mail to deron@morpheustrading.com.