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Dollar Regains Footing as Event Risk Sweeps Market
By David Rodriguez | Published  03/10/2008 | Currency | Unrated
Dollar Regains Footing as Event Risk Sweeps Market

The fading US dollar found its footing on a fundamentally-light session, though the risk related pairs were still pushing the greenback to new lows. The Swiss franc and the yen were the only currencies to advance against the US dollar as a broad aversion to risk swept over speculative assets. This market dynamic sent USD/CHF to a new record low and USD/JPY to set fresh eight-year lows. Against its European counterparts, the dollar regained modest lost growth. The euro continued to trade off Friday’s highs following the unexpected reversal from the dollar after disappointing NFPs, while against the British pound, the dollar was making a more concerted advance by nearly 175 points to 2.0050.

Monday morning brought fresh economic data, though its impact on the currency market was relatively restrained. The wholesale sales report is considered a second or even third tier market mover for the currency market – often generating little to no price action from the US currency. However, the January reading was a little more interesting than past releases. According to the Commerce Department’s statistics, wholesale sales jumped 2.7 percent - the biggest increase in four years – even as inventories grew 0.8 percent. This jump in sales is unexpected considering many economists and business leaders are concerned consumer spending will fade going forward. Nonetheless, purchases of durable goods jumped 4.2 percent, the most since May of 2006, while auto sales rose the most in four months with a 3.2 percent pickup. More consistent with expectations was the jump in non-durables like fuel and groceries, essential goods whose sales value has been boosted by prices. However, the durable component of this report offers the market something to think about for Thursday’s retail sales report.

The securities market kicked off the week on a bad note as falling Tech stocks dragged the market, and led approximately 800 stocks to hit new 52 week lows. The DJIA plunged 153.54 points and fell to 11,740.15 points, with only four of the big 30 gaining which include McDonalds, Microsoft, IBM, and Intel. The broader S&P500 shaved 20.00 points to hold at 1,273.37 points, with Nationwide Financial leading the winners, while Thornburg Mortgage share prices continued their losing streak and topped the losers.

Demand for US Treasuries accelerated as risk adverse investors turned dour and sought after the safe haven of risk free bonds. Consequently, the benchmark 10-Year yield plunged to 3.45 percent, while the 2-Year yield following as it fell to 1.48 percent.

Looking ahead, the US economic calendar will release the January trade balance at 12:30 GMT. This report squeezed little price action out of the dollar over the past year, but with economists and FX traders looking for the influence of a cheaper dollar to pass through to export activity, a surprise could elicit a greater response from the majors this time around.

David Rodriguez is a Currency Analyst at FXCM.