AUD/CAD
Commentary – Reviewing our analysis for the AUDCAD, it looks like the rally from .8749 is actually wave X in a more complex correction from .9519. We favor this view because the rally from .8749 is not a clean 5 wave impulse that would typically signal the beginning of a 3rd wave. The favored view now is that price will come down to test the .8422-.8659 level, which is the 78.6%-61.8% of .8123-.9518 before the large wave 3 begins, which should be powerful.

Strategy – Move to flat, none

AUD/JPY
Commentary – We wrote last week that “the AUDJPY remains bullish but may be in the final weeks of an impressive run. Channel resistance that dates to June 2001 comes in near 104.30 this week and weekly RSI is overbought (above 70). Counting from the bottom of the October 2000 low, we are nearing a significant top. Wave 3 is extended and wave 5 is tracing out a long ending diagonal (as it consists of overlapping waves). Price has thrust through the top of the diagonal line (red). Watch for signs of a reversal just above 104.00 in the coming weeks.” The pair has reversed from major channel resistance and support is not until the May high of 98.90.

Strategy – None

AUD/NZD
Commentary – The AUDNZD is trying to break lower. The next level of resistance is the 78.6% of 1.0433-1.2493 at 1.0877. The long term structure is extremely bearish (which is what we are showing today). The monthly chart shows lower highs dating back to 1984 along with firm support at 1.0500. A move towards 1.0500 might be the next significant development with the AUDNZD.

Strategy – None

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.