EUR/JPY
Commentary – The turn that we thought was just beginning wasn’t a turn at all. The EURJPY has turned higher yet again. The longer term wave count still suggests that the EURJPY is close to putting in a significant top and that the rate will fall close to 130.00 in the next year +. Looking at an old channel, resistance is near 166.60. Wave 5 (from 161.49), within the 5 wave rally from 150.73, would equal wave 1 at 166.46. The 4th wave correction takes on the shape now of an irregular flat. We will wait for a test of 166.50 before taking any action.

Strategy – None

EUR/CHF
Commentary – We wrote last week that “the EURCHF may push to a new high in the weeks ahead to complete an ending diagonal that began April 19th. Connecting the April 19th and June 6th lows and projecting a parallel line from the 5/20 high projects a 5th wave high near 1.6660. Coming under 1.6413 would signal a reversal.” The pair is tracking our preferred count. We are looking for a test of the upper resistance line and a reversal.

Strategy – None

EUR/GBP
Commentary – We wrote last week that “the 5 wave rally from .6535 to .6867 (late4 January-early March) indicates that the larger trend is bullish but the next leg up has not started yet. A larger flat correction appears to be unfolding from .6867. The C leg of the correction would equal the A leg at .6737 and the 61.8% of .6535-.6867 is at .6662. We are looking for a bottom to form in this zone before the EURGBP rallies impressively.” The low last week was at .6728, just below our zone, but the rally since is imopulsive, indicating that the trend has turned up. Expect some short term weakness down towards .6747 in order to complete a small 2nd wave correction before the EURGBP rallies.

Strategy – Bullish now, against .6728, target TBD

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.