| Yen Products Finally Break Down |
| By Todd Gordon |
Published
03/28/2007
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Currency
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Unrated
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Yen Products Finally Break Down
Two weeks of hard work, patience, and endurance has finally paid off. EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, and US equity markets all broke down from my daily target reversal levels. It took a few attempts, but they finally went. EUR/JPY is about 250 points lower from yesterday's high and USD/JPY is 160 lower.
Our first sell level in USD/JPY last night was 118.02. Between 7:54-8:24 p.m. ET last night, I watched USD/JPY trade 117.98-02 about five times. So rather than miss our first entry by two points, again, I hit 117.98's to get short the first piece. I traded in and out of USD/JPY shorts around a core position from 117.98 all the way down to 116.95 this morning. Once Monday's 117.60 lows gave way last night, I tasted blood in the water and knew the game was on.
So what going forward? I have laid out two possible wave counts. The first one is my preferred and is immediately below. Tonight, we should make one quick push above 117.00 the figure before the wave v of .3 unfolds to a 116.20 low. I am loaded up to sell 116.95 and 117.05 with stops at 117.25 for the big push down to 116.20.
Or, the alternate count is that we have already seen wave 3 low this morning and will break through channel resistance at 117.07. This will bring a big, choppy wave 4 push towards 117.60 before wave 5 of I at 116.20 unfolds. If we are stopped at 117.25 tonight, I will opt to sit on my hands and watch wave 4 unfold for clues as to when the trend will re-emerge for the fifth down.
Todd Gordon is a Technical Currency Strategist and Fund Trader with GAIN Capital Group.
Disclaimer The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
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