I find the action in the 10-year T-notes, proxy the iShares Lehman 20+ Treasury Bond (TLT), to be fascinating today. With gold and oil flying, the euro perched at a relatively buoyant 1.3150, we could suspect that some Fed official mouthed off about continued fears of inflation, or that the FOMC minutes from Jan 31 reinforced the Fed’s concerns about inflation. Should that be the case, then why are the TLT’s holding up so well? On the other hand, suppose there is an underlying geopolitical reason for the spikes in gold and oil? I really do not know what is going on right at this moment, but the uncertainty of it all may be precisely the reason for the apparent direct relationship here -- rather than a more intuitive indirect one.



Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical chart analysis and trading alerts on all major markets. For more of Mike Paulenoff, sign up for a free 15-Day trial to his MPTrader Diary by clicking here.