EUR/USD – We maintain that the decline from 1.3296 is impulsive and the fact that we can count 5 waves from 1.1640 to 1.3367 favors a major turn lower.  A break below 1.2865 targets the next bearish target at 1.2708 (38.2% of 1.1640-1.3367).  The rally from 1.2865 is choppy and looks corrective.  Fibo resistance begins at the 38.2% of 1.3296-1.2865 at 1.3028.  Former support at the 12/18 low of 1.3051 is additional resistance.

USD/JPY – We still maintain our position regarding the longer term implications from the 13 month inverse head and shoulders pattern.  A measured objective is at 128.67 – which is where the advance from 108.96 would equal the advance from 101.67 to 121.38.  The pair continues to make higher highs.  Near term, a measured objective lies at 123.21, which is where the 114.42-119.67 rally would equal the rally from 117.97.  Former resistance at 120.87 is now near term support.

GBP/USD – We focused last week on how much more constructive Cable was compared to the EURUSD.  The pair has turned up in a 5th wave to complete the bullish sequence from 1.8515 (and the bullish sequence of one larger degree from 1.7046).  Thus, price is expected to exceed 1.9846 before a major correction takes place.  The rally from 1.9260 has stalled at former support centered on 1.9750.  The recent weakness / consolidation looks like a 4th wave within the larger 5th wave.  This 4th may be tracing out a triangle, thus support stems from the 1/19 low at 1.9694.  A push through 1.9777 targets the high at 1.9846.

USD/CHF – The USDCHF has traded sideways since 1/12 (making a new short term high at 1.2546 on 1/18).  A rally through 1.2546 would make the rally from 1.1878 5 waves and solidify the bullish outlook.  The confluence of the 78.6% fibo of 1.2767-1.1878 / 11/6 high at 1.2578 is potential short term resistance on a break above 1.2546.  The 1/16 low at 1.2416 is support.

USD/CAD – A potential resisting line from a 2+ year bearish channel is at 1.1840 today.  The 50% of 1.2731-1.0927 is at 1.1830.  Further, the 1.618% extension of 1.0927-1.1456 / 1.1028 is at 1.1883.  This area – 1.1830 to 1.1883 is an ideal topping area for the USDCAD before the pair resumes its longer term downtrend to below 1.0927.  A short term inverse head and shoulders continuation pattern also favors a rally to above 1.1800 before a larger turn lower.  A drop below 1.1644 would grant confidence the bearish case.

AUD/USD – The AUDUSD is coming up on resistance from the 12/8 high at .7929.  The extent of the rally from .7759 strongly suggests that the next 5 wave advance is already in the works.  As such, the 3 year resisting line is expected to give way.  That line is just below the 1/3 high (.7979).  .7858 is initial support.

NZD/USD – Kiwi has held above the 7 month trendline and broke above .6970 this morning – (last week’s high).  The rally from .6840 may be a series of 1 and 2 waves rather than a correction of weakness.  Watch price action near the 61.8% of .7096-.6840, which is at .6998.  A rally through the .7000 figure gives scope to the 78.6% at .7041.  Stalling or a rejection at .7000 could give way to another leg down.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.