EUR/USD â�,�“ We expected a test of the June high at 1.2976, but not for at least a week or so.  The â�,��"characterâ�,� of the decline into 1.2980 on Friday is convincing that a bigger turn to the downside is in the works.  The dealer (4 hour) chart shows a well defined 5 wave decline to just below the 61.8% of 1.2761-1.3367.  The structure favors at least a short term rally.  Fibo resistance begins at the 38.2% of 1.3296-1.2980.  This level is reinforced by the 01/05 high at 1.3104.

USD/JPY â�,�“ The USDJPY held at the resistance line drawn off of 121.38 and 119.87 and has declined to the 20 day SMA at the 118.00 figure.   Additional support is at the 38.2% of 114.42-119.67 at 117.67 followed by the 50% at 117.04.  The daily is showing a symmetrical triangle from the 121.38 high in December 2005 (along with the inverse head and shoulders within the triangle).  Triangles are often 5 waves â�,�“ and this weakness looks like the beginning of a 5th wave down within the triangle.  Alternating legs of triangles are also usually related by the golden ratio â�,�“ 61.8%.  Well, 61.8% of the 119.87-114.42 leg is 337 pips â�,�“ when subtracted from the recent high at 119.67 â�,�“ we arrive at a possible terminus for this leg of the triangle at 116.30.  The 61.8% retracement of 114.42-119.67 happens to be 116.43.  In summary, 116.30/43 looks like a very attractive area before a major rally attempt takes place.

GBP/USD â�,�“ Cable tested last weekâ�,��"�s low this morning (1.9260) and has since bounced 60 pips.  The major level of resistance is the 12/18 low at 1.9432.  This level is reinforced by the 38.2% of 1.9749-1.9260 at 1.9445.  While a bounce to there is certainly possible, daily momentum suggests that the next move of consequence looks is down towards the 23.6% of 1.7046-1.9846 at 1.9187 (also the 11/10 high at 1.9178).  Potential trendline support drawn off of 1.8090 and 1.8515 is at 1.8839 today and increases about 7 pips per day.

USD/CHF â�,�“ The break above 1.2271 last week paints a bullish picture but be wary of a pullback.  240 minute RSI is divergent at the recent high (1.2393) and has declined from above 70.  The 1.2400 figure is likely well protected and the 200 day SMA is at 1.2384.  Near term support is at the 01/05 low at 1.2271, which is also former resistance.

USD/CAD â�,�“ The USDCAD rally has stalled at the 4/3 high of 1.1771.  With daily oscillators declining from overbought territory, bears may see some relief.  However, a resistance line from a potential bearish channel rests at 1.1878 today, just above the 50% of 1.2732-1.0927 at 1.1830.  That level is most certainly flooded with stops, which if taken out, the 11/15/2005 high at 1.1975 could be seen.  As mentioned though, overbought conditions may lead to a correction first, with the 12/29 high at 1.1667 as initial support.   

AUD/USD â�,�“ The AUDUSD has stabilized at support from the 12/15 low at .7778 â�,�“ todayâ�,��"�s low is .7780.  240 minute RSI is below 30 (oversold), suggesting that the near term could see a bounce towards resistance which begins at the 01/05 high at .7850.  A daily close below .7778 would bolster the bearish case and give scope to the 50% fibo of .7413-.7979 at .7696.

NZD/USD â�,�“ Kiwi dropped off of a cliff last week.  The pair made a weekly outside reversal (higher high, lower low and close below prior weekâ�,��"�s low).  The bearish pattern suggests that .7100 is safe for quite some time and grants confidence to the long term head and shoulders potential.  Initial support is at the 11/1 high at .6750.  Fridayâ�,��"�s (01/05) high at .6958 is initial resistance.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.