From a strictly technical perspective the QID has broken out to new 5-week recovery highs from within the base pattern that has developed between (roughly) 50.70 and 54.20.  While the QID has not shown any significant upside follow-through yet, as long as the price remains above 54 on a closing basis we should consider todayââ,¬â"¢s action as a bonafide breakout and reversal of the near-term trend ââ,¬â€œ that projects next to 56 on the way to 58. However, should todayââ,¬â"¢s spike to 54.56 reverse and close below 54, my near-term technical work will be in a gray  area, while a close below 53.60 will argue that todayââ,¬â"¢s early strength represented nothing more than a stop-triggering bull trap.  This will be our last column until after January 2, as we are on vacation next week.

Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical chart analysis and trading alerts on all major markets. For more of Mike Paulenoff, sign up for a free 15-Day trial to his MPTrader Diary by clicking here.