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Euro Surges Towards 1.3200
By Jamie Saettele | Published  12/19/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Euro Surges Towards 1.3200

EUR/USD â,“ As we said yesterday regarding EURUSD, â,"the pair could bottom out near 1.3052 â,“ the decline from 1.3292 would equal the 1.3367-1.3126 decline at 1.3052 (a classic a-b-c correction).â, This is precisely what the pair has done, as price bounced from yesterdayâ,"s 1.3051 low at the supporting trendline connecting the 10/24 and 11/21 lows. Momentum could carry EURUSD back towards the 12/4 high of 1.3367 should price be able to close above immediate resistance at the 23.6% fibo of 1.2482 â,“ 1.3368 at 1.3159. However, a break below the noted supporting trendline and the psychologically important 1.3000 level could lead to more significant declines to the 61.8% fibo at 1.2820.

USD/JPY â,“ The USDJPY continues to rally but is nearing resistance at a trendline connecting the 10/13 and 10/24 highs, with the line currently sitting at 118.36 and falling about 4 points per day. Should price break higher, the pair could target the 10/13 high at 119.87. However, daily oscillators are starting to ease back and could point to a slowdown in momentum. A turn lower could take aim on the 12/13 low at 116.64.  

GBP/USD â,“ Cable surged higher this morning and is currently encountering resistance at a short term trendline at the 12/1 and 12/13 highs. The line currently rests at 1.9664 and declines 16 points a day. A break above this level could take aim on resistance at the 12/13 high at 1.9727. However, if the trendline holds and a decline ensues, GBPUSD could dip back to the 38.2% fibo of 1.8832 - 1.9846 at 1.9461.

USD/CHF â,“ USDCHF backed off from yesterdayâ,"s high of 1.2267, and as weâ,"ve noted over the past few days, â,"The pair closed above the 20 day SMA last Thursday for the first time since 10/25 â,“ indicating a medium term shift in trend. Overbought RSI on the 240 minute chart combined with the 3 wave structure of the advance from 1.1878 may serve to limit gains but only a decline below 1.2097 instills confidence in a bearish scenario.â, RSI on the 240 minute chart has dropped from overbought levels and could signal further declines.

USD/CAD â,“ Loonie is at a standstill at channel resistance at the current juncture, where price has held for nearly 4 days.  Daily oscillators near or at overbought levels along with divergent short term oscillators give scope to further weakness / consolidation.  Initial support is at the 12/8 high at 1.1516 while the next major level of resistance is not until 1.1771.

AUD/USD â,“ Aussie has regained strength as oscillators are picking up from bearish territory following recent declines from the double top formed at the 12/1 and 12/8 highs. However, price looks to target immediate resistance at the 12/13 high at .7893. Declines from current levels could slip down to significant support at the 11/1 high at .7766.

NZD/USD â,“ The Kiwi remains clustered near the 61.8% of .7463-.5927 between .6814 and .6939 and has stalled near the 12/8 and 12/14 highs.  While RSI has declined from above 70 on the daily, the uptrend remains in place above the trendline drawn off of the 6/28 and 11/15 lows.  That line is at .6729 today and increases about 4 pips per day. A short term trendline near .6850 keeps the short term bias bullish.  A decline below this line shifts focus to the 12/6 low at .6814.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.