The perspective of the Qââ,¬â"¢s shows the triangle consolidation-type pattern that has developed off of the 11/24 high at 44.86, which remains intact as we speak, but which shows that the lower triangle support line is under pressure (at 43.65/45). A sustained violation of the prior low at 43.48 should trigger downside follow-through that tests a more important pivot low at 43.26 from 12/01. If that level is violated, then we will have ourselves a near-term top in the Qââ,¬â"¢s that projects a target zone of 42.20-41.90. Conversely, inability of the Qââ,¬â"¢s to press lower will keep the triangle pattern intact, and so too the bullish scenario that calls for one more upside thrust into the 45.20/50 area to complete the July-December upleg. Much depends on how the market reacts to the FOMC statement.

Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical chart analysis and trading alerts on all major markets. For more of Mike Paulenoff, sign up for a free 15-Day trial to his MPTrader Diary by clicking here.