CAD/JPY â�,�“ Last week, we mentioned that â�,��"the downside may be limited at the current juncture due to oversold daily oscillators (for the first time since April 2005) and the appearance of 5 waves down from 105.99.  If a correction plays out, then resistance is at the 11/28 high at 102.98â�,��".  A correction played out but the rally stalled at 102.05 today.  The next test for bears is the year long support line (see below) near 100.  A break below would bolster the bearish case.  Strong resistance is at 102.98 â�,�“ the confluence of the 11/28 high / 50% fibo of 105.99-99.96.

CHF/JPY â�,�“ Since May of 2003, the CHFJPY has traced out a 5 wave ending diagonal pattern.  The pattern often ends with a thrust through the top of the resistance line towards a level that is related in a Fibonacci multiple to the widest portion of the triangle.  In this case, the Fibonacci levels are 97.24 and 100.41.  Price is testing the first measured objective at 97.24 today and RSI is above 70 on the daily â�,�“ an occurrence that has historically marked rather significant tops.  Still, it takes a decline below 95.88 to begin to suggest that a top is in place.  As mentioned, the next measured objective is 100.41. 

NZD/JPY â�,�“ Last week we remarked that â�,��"A break below 77.37 would argue that a top is in place at 79.68 and focus would then shift to the 9/8 low at 73.97.  If 79.68 is exceeded, then the topping scenario is negated (at least temporarily) and resistance would be at the 2/3 high at 81.95â�,�.  The latter has taken place and 81.95 is now the focus.  The strength of the uptrend at this point is in question due to the bearish divergence that is evident on the daily charts (with oscillators).  Initial support is at the 10/23 high of 79.47 (former resistance).  A support line drawn off of the 7/31 and 11/24 lows provides a reference point from which to work.  A parallel line extended from the 5/25 high intersects with the 9/18 high and forms a bullish channel.  Price above the support line warrants a bullish bias although potential resistance exists at the center of the bullish channel.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.