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Dollars Extremely Oversold
By Todd Gordon | Published  12/4/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Dollars Extremely Oversold

USD/JPY broke 115.50 last night and went 115.81 bid just before midnight offering a small window to book profits before retreating back into the 115.40-50 range. The trade is still valid while above 115.20.

The commodity currencies have been on a roll, and perhaps flying a bit under the radar, as euros have received most of press lately. We have been lightly trying to buy US dollars in their extremely oversold status and Aussie is showing nice RSI divergence against 1.618 Fib extension below 0.7910.

Moving down to the 15-minute chart, we get a nice retest of trendline support after sellers dumped Aussie after testing 1.618 extension. The resistant trendline falls in around 0.7895, which will serve as the basis our short targeting .618 retracement at 0.7835.

Down to the 10 min chart we find three distinct price leg ratios suggesting 0.7895 should be the short-term top. First, we have the 52-point advance from Friday night projected higher from last night's 0.7848 low equals 0.7900. Second, the initial 35 point advance from 0.7848 last night, projected higher from the 9:00 a.m. ET low of 0.7861 gives us 0.7896. And thirdly, the .618 retracement from Friday afternoon's 0.7925 high down to last night's 0.7848 low equals 0.7895. Look to get short between 0.7890-0.7900 with stops just above .786 retracement at 0.7915.

Todd Gordon is a Technical Currency Strategist and Fund Trader with GAIN Capital Group.

Disclaimer
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.