EUR/AUD ââ,¬â€œ We have been focusing on the downward sloping channel from the 6/6 high at 1.7360. The bounce from the lower end of the channel at 1.6435 at 11/1 stalled just above the 61.8% fibo of 1.7146-1.6432 at 1.6873. A short term trendline drawn off of the 11/1 and 11/24 lows keeps the possibility of an advance to the upper end of the larger aforementioned channel intact. Initial resistance is at the 11/27 high at 1.6908. Another important technical consideration is the fact that price is again above the 200 day SMA ââ,¬â€œ which is now support at 1.6770.
EUR/CAD ââ,¬â€œ 18 of the last 20 days have seen gains in the EURCAD ââ,¬â€œ that is not a typo. The pair has vaulted to above the 1.5200 figure ââ,¬â€œ just above the 50% Fibonacci of 1.6974-1.3497 at 1.5233. The question isââ,¬Â¦how much more upside potential is left ââ,¬â€œ at least in the near term? A 261.8% extension of 1.4125 to 1.4529 is at 1.5395 along with former congestion at the 6/10/2005 high at 1.5400. Due to the vertical uninterrupted nature of this rise, it is difficult to pinpoint support points to trade against. In this environment, moving averages work well. As such, a bullish bias is warranted against the 10 day SMA ââ,¬â€œ which is at 1.4896 today.
EUR/NZD ââ,¬â€œ The EURNZD is trading within a well defined upward sloping channel. The break above the resisting trendline from July inspires confidence in the bullish side and a break above the 200 day SMA ââ,¬â€œ which is above current price at 1.9741 would bolster the longer term bullish case. The swing low at 1.9296 yesterday is initial risk for bulls. Price needs to maintain the bullish trendline drawn off of the 10/23, 11/3, and 11/21 lows in order to maintain confidence in the upside.
Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.