How many times have we seen a monster move in the US on a thin holiday volume day? Whoever it was -- large corporates, hedge funds, or central banks -- somebody had an agenda that was played out as most US volume was thinking about turkey. Let's just take a look at Thanksgiving week the previous three years to find if there is a pre-Thanksgiving break, and if so, what are the implications?

The week of November 21-27 in 2003 we see EUR/USD break from 1.2000 resistance to make a 1.2900 high just after the new year. On the same pre-thanksgiving week in 2004, EUR/USD breaks from 1.3020 resistance to make a 1.3667 high on the last trading day of 2004. Last year, EUR/USD put in a pre-Thanksgiving low of 1.1600 and change to rally 500 points through Jan 2006.

I guess we have our answer. For the previous three pre-Thanksgiving weeks, we have seen the US dollar get a Thanksgiving stuffing that has led to no less than 500 points into January of the New Year. And with 1.2980 resistance in sight, we could easily be in for a look at those 1.3660 highs this winter.

USD/JPY is showing a beautiful target for year-end at 115.25. The analysis is shown on the chart and is in play provided the current trendline .618 projection gives was at 116.50.

Todd Gordon is a Technical Currency Strategist and Fund Trader with GAIN Capital Group.

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