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Scaling Out of Swiss Franc
By Todd Gordon | Published  11/17/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Scaling Out of Swiss Franc

We held our USD/CHF though a choppy market yesterday, but our patience was rewarded last night. Traders took the dollar higher and EUR/CHF back to 1.6000 for a second go, two very bullish factors for USD/CHF. I scaled out of my long position at 1.2508 and 1.2525 for a 53 and 70 point gain, respectively. I see that USD/CHF has come off the highs quite a bit following the Housing Starts numbers. I truly hope some of you remembered the EUR/USD focus level from earlier this week. If you did, you will have known that dollar buying was running out of steam.

The 1.0 projection level at 1.2765 was the final target of our short trade from 1.2835 that just missed being filled earlier this week. Corrective wave Y will equal corrective wave W at 1.2765. USD/CHF was breaking into new highs as EUR/USD was holding that 1.0 projection level. In a true dollar up market, USD/CHF should be making new highs, as EUR/USD should be slicing into the lows. But this wasn't the case. Instead, EUR/CHF was pushing back towards 1.6000, which told us this was more a Swiss selling move than a Dollar buying move that was supporting USD/CHF. So we watched for any EUR/CHF hesitation at 1.6000 to exit our USD/CHF position, which you saw at around 8:00 a.m. ET. It was a very nice week with the EUR/JPY trade Sunday night and the USD/CHF today, so hopefully we can continue the momentum into next week.

Todd Gordon is a Technical Currency Strategist and Fund Trader with GAIN Capital Group.

Disclaimer
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.