GBP/JPY â,“ We mentioned last week that â,"The diagonal triangle pattern is a terminal pattern, meaning that it marks the end of a move and subsequent trend reversal. The reversal scenario would be bolstered by a daily close below the support line from the triangle pattern, which is at 223.30 today.â, The reversal has (is) occurred (occurring). Major tops in GBPJPY typically lead to multi-day declines. So far, we have only had one major down day following the recent top at 225.28. The pair has stalled ahead of support from the 10/30 low at 222.44. A break lower seems likely given the tendency for GBPJPY to extend its declines. The next support area is the 10/17 low at 221.21 and the 9/29 low at 219.91.
GBP/CHF â,“ The GBPCHF has also declined significantly and has stalled just prior to the 8/15 high at 2.3499. The next bearish target is not until the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of 2.2519-2.3864/10/2 low at 2.3351 but a decline through 2.3499 is required before the picture becomes more bearish. Resistance at the 11/13 high of 2.3729 needs to hold in order for confidence in the downside to remain strong.
GBP/AUD â,“ The GBPAUD has declined from just below 2.5000 figure to below 2.4600 in the last 3 days (11/14 through 11/16). The theme of stalling in front of support continues in the GBPAUD with the pair currently just above the 11/6 low (pivot low) of 2.4571. A break below still contends with the 200 day SMA at 2.4514. However, the pair may be at the beginning of a larger trend change. Price is currently just below the 11 month trendline. A daily close below would suggest additional bearish potential towards the 7/18 low at 2.4241.
Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.