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Trading Plan for USD/CHF
By Todd Gordon | Published  11/15/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Trading Plan for USD/CHF

We just missed our 1.2835 limit to sell EUR/USD last night. The 3:00 a.m. ET run up in EUR/USD made a 1.2832-35 high, and then collapsed to within 10 points of our 1.2765 target. I had orders out for my full size, too.  I was not a happy camper this morning.

Oh well. What was nice about this setup, however, was the symmetry between the two B waves. Wave B within wave W totaled 36 points, where as last night's wave B within wave Y was 41 points. This is a very nice example of a symmetrical relationship between corrective waves within Elliott Wave Theory.

For today, we're going to continue to look to buy dollars. USD/CHF has broken the October downtrend channel and is pushing lower in search of support from the breakout area. Should USD/CHF find support, a run back towards 1.2580 will be our play.

Moving down to the 15-minute chart, we get another projected support at 1.2450 area, derived from the previous retracement A-B. Notice the projected support aligns with the channel support from the 90 min chart above. The projected support is actually closer to 1.2445, but i'm bidding at 55 because there's no way I'm going to miss this entry. Stops are about 30 points lower. Keep in mind that FOMC minutes are out at 2:15 p.m. ET, which will likely put a move into this market. Personally, I'm heading into the news with my orders at my desk, fully prepared to be filled and stopped in the same second if the data is dollar negative. Just be aware that the risk is there. Back tonight with an update.

Todd Gordon is a Technical Currency Strategist and Fund Trader with GAIN Capital Group.

Disclaimer
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions