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EUR/USD Breakout Unconvincing
By Todd Gordon | Published  11/7/2006 | Currency | Unrated
EUR/USD Breakout Unconvincing

Technically, EUR/USD broke 1.2800 resistance on intra-day basis, but in a rather unconvincing fashion. I say unconvincing, because there was no intra-day range expansion as compared to recent sessions, which is required to confirm the breakout as valid. Today we saw EUR/USD trade in a 96 point range. For comparison, the top three intra-day ranges of the past two weeks is November 3 - 99 pts, October 31 - 101 pts, and October 26 - 92 pts. So as the election returns trickle in tonight, expect the dollar to be choppy until we know for sure.

The EUR/CHF approach to 1.6000 has been in play recently and is showing signs of failure. 1.272 Fib Extension and diverging RSI show that 1.6000 might be safe for a while.

Moving to the real short stuff, we find a nice head and shoulders on the 15-minute chart. I'm looking to offer a piece into the .618 retracement resistance at 1.5965 with stops above the 1.5981 high. Should today's 1.5938 lows give way, I'll look to add another piece targeting the 1.5920 projected target, as compared to the 1.5980-1.5938 move. This is a highly contra-trend trade, so be proactive about moving your stop lower to minimize risk.

Todd Gordon is a Technical Currency Strategist and Fund Trader with GAIN Capital Group.

Disclaimer
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.