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Strong Jobs Revisions Limits January Fed Rate Cuts Expectations
By Todd Gordon | Published  11/3/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Strong Jobs Revisions Limits January Fed Rate Cuts Expectations

For the second month in a row, the prior month's job growth was revised higher sending today's unemployment rate to a five-year low. The yield on the 10-year note at lunch time in New York is enjoying its third largest single day gain in over 14 months, as traders scale down positions for a Fed rate cut early next year. Gold has pushed through $627/OZ resistance, and the DJIA is back below 12k. I do not believe, however, the wise trade is to join this dollar-buying frenzy. To the contrary, we should be looking to sell dollars into this news.

To revisit October EUR/USD price action, we broke though the summer trend channel resistance in late October, which was highly unexpected to EUR/USD traders. So it's likely that heavy EUR/USD short positions from the 1.2675-1.2700 region are still out in the market. Further, if the stops on those positions were above 1.2800, then it's almost certain those shorts are still out in the market, as the Nov 1st high did not go 1.2800 offered. Therefore, you can expect a visit back into the unfortunate shorts' entry zone to be met with buying from shorts squaring up after nearly being stopped out for a big figure loss. Technically speaking, that is simply a retest of the former channel resistance, which has now turned to support, as well as .382 retracement at 1.2676.

Drilling down into the setup chart, we get further technical evidence from a projected symmetrical price relationship that points to 1.2675-80 as support. The specific technicals are labeled on the chart.

USD/JPY is in a very similar situation as EUR/USD. We are revisiting the October breakdown level of 118.20, which likely caught many longs on the wrong side of the trade. If those longs had stops around 117.00, they were done, but if they were 116.50 stop sellers, they are still in the market. So again, any revisit to the original long entry zone will likely be met by traders liquidating long positions, thus creating resistance.

USD/JPY is also showing possible price symmetry resistance between neighboring retracements within the resistant downtrend channel. 118.10-25 is likely to serve as solid resistance. We will be looking to setup short dollar positions into Sunday night's Asian open.

Todd Gordon is a Technical Currency Strategist and Fund Trader with GAIN Capital Group.

Disclaimer
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.