EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The EURUSD bounced from support just above the prior 4th wave low of 1.2662 to a new high for the week at 1.2783.  240 minute RSI has decline below 70 and the oscillator is divergent with the high at 1.2783.  Potential resistance lies at the 5 month triangle resistance line near 1.2800.  The evidence points to more downside potential than upside.  Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low at 1.2677 is initial support.    

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The USDJPY looks to have completed a 5 wave decline from 119.87 at 116.60.  240 minute RSI is in the exact same position as in the EURUSD ââ,¬â€œ just in the opposite direction.  Thus, the short term favors a rally attempt with initial resistance not until 118.04.  Support is now at the 9/22 low at 116.07.  The 200 day SMA is also support at 116.21.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cable has rallied into the resistance zone bound by the 8/31 and 8/8 highs between 1.9091 and 1.9144.  The presence of this resistance along with overbought 240 minute oscillators favors the downside from current price.  A rally above 1.9144 could see an extension on a short squeeze to the 4/20/2005 high at 1.9215.  If weakness plays out, then support is at yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low at 1.8955 followed by the 10/20 high at 1.8859.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The USDCHF is testing support at the lower end of a 5 month upward sloping channel.  The actual support line is just below current price near 1.2400.  The support line combined with increasing short term oscillators from extremely oversold levels suggests more upside potential.  The 10/31 high at 1.2528 is initial resistance.  A break below the aforementioned trendline exposes the 9/25 low at 1.2288.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The USDCAD is just above resistance from the 10/24 high at 1.1322, which is strengthened by the 61.8% of 1.1413-1.1177, also at 1.1322.  A daily close above 1.1322 would bolster the bullish picture.  The next bullish target is the 10/17 high at 1.1413.  Short term upside momentum is strong and not yet overbought.  On the daily, the pair has again broken above the 200 day SMA (1.1293 today) and RSI and CCI have crossed above midpoints of 50 and 0.  Initial support on a pullback is former resistance (now support) at the 10/1 high at 1.1286.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The AUDUSD is rallying again today and has pushed above the 9/4 high at .7721.  This shifts focus to potential resistance at the 5/11 high at .7791.  If price closes above todayââ,¬â"¢s open (.7736), then the Aussie will have rallied for 7 consecutive days, which is quite a rarity.  In fact, 7 consecutive up days has occurred 14 times in the last 10 years on 6 separate occasions (going back to November 1996).  Two days in a row is considered one occurrence.  The last two instances have marked significant tops.The daily chart below shows all 6 instances.  

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi has also rallied ââ,¬â€œ pushing above the 9/26 high at .6721 and opening up the door for more gains.  However, an aggressive bullish stance seems rather dangerous at the current juncture due to overbought short term oscillators and divergent daily oscillators.  A drop below .6692 would begin to suggest that the pair was turning lower ââ,¬â€œ if even for just a correction.  The next bullish target would be the 2/10 high at .6835. 

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.