AUD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ AUDCAD has soared in what is a 3rd wave higher.  We have focused on AUDCAD and the longer term reversal potential since the spinning top candle (monthly candle) in June.  A break above the 7/31 high would bolster the bullish scenario.  The short term picture favors a consolidation/correction lower as the rally from .8342 to .8611 appears to be a 3rd wave.  Thus, a 4th wave correction followed by a 5th wave to a new high is the favored view.  Price must remain above .8422 in order to keep the bullish structure intact. 

AUD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ AUDJPY looks like it is front running AUDCAD.  The rally from 87.50 to 89.94 looks like a 3rd wave and the subsequent decline to 89.09 the 4th wave.  That places the current rally as the 5th wave.  The 5 wave sequence will be complete following a break of 89.94 but strength could obviously extend.  The next resistance zone is bound by the 12/12/2005 and 12/5/2005 highs at 90.95/91.32.  A break below 88.29 before an extension above 89.94 would wipe out the bullish structure.  It takes a break below the 4 month supporting trendline drawn through 83.46 and 87.54 in order to favor the downside.  That line is at 87.94 today and increases about 6 pips per day.  

AUD/NZD ââ,¬â€œ AUDNZD remains trapped between 1.1201 and 1.1490 (the range since 9/15).  The proximity of the 61.8% of 1.0428-1.2423 at 1.1193 along with wave structure on the daily points to a possible bottom at 1.1201.  The 1.0428-1.2423 rally is in 5 waves and the decline since is broken into 3 waves.  Price crept above a steep resisting trendline on 10/16 and is currently testing the other side of the trendline as support.  A triangle is evident in the shorter term.  Triangle support is near 1.1280 and triangle resistance just below 1.1450.  A break above the 9/20 high at 1.1490 would clarify the picture.  Price below 1.1201 would negate the immediate bullish stance.  

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.