EUR/USD â�,�“ The EURUSD rallied to test 1.2565 yesterday and the pair has since traded within a 36 pip range.  The important price level remains the shelf of support at 1.2456/81.  The 200 day SMA at 1.2478 reinforces support at this level.  A break below the 7/19 low at 1.2456 opens up the door for additional losses towards the 1/25 high at 1.2323.  As mentioned yesterday â�,��"it appears that 5 waves are down from 1.2765.  Fibonacci resistance begins at the 38.2% of 1.2765-1.2483 at 1.2590.â�,�  The 10 day SMA at 1.2560 â�,�“ just below yesterdayâ�,��"�s high at 1.2565 â�,�“ is initial resistance.

USD/JPY â�,�“ The USDJPY slipped to the 61.8% of 117.35-119.87 at 118.31 and has since bounced to above 118.70.  240 minute oscillators have turned up and favor a continuation of strength from 118.31.  It is possible that the decline from 119.87 to 118.31 was the final leg of a 3 wave corrective move lower (a-b-câ�,�¦.see labeling below).  Only a break below the 5 month trendline drawn through 108.96 and 116.07 would turn the daily picture bearish.  That line is at 117.33 today.

GBP/USD â�,�“ Cable rallied to 1.8738 today â�,�“ just shy of the 61.8% of 1.8897-1.8515 (which is at 1.8751).  240 minute RSI crossed below 70 yesterday and 60 minute RSI exhibits bearish divergence with price at the 1.8738 high.    A push above 1.8738 exposes the 78.6% of 1.8897-1.8515 at 1.816.  The 10/11 low at 1.8515 remains support â�,�“ a break lower opens up the door for a test of the 7/25 low at 1.8383.  The rally from 1.8522 may be the final leg of a 3 wave corrective move higher from 1.8515.

USD/CHF â�,�“ The USDCHF tested the short term supporting trendline at 1.2638 yesterday but has since bounced.  The wave structure is not as clear as the other majors â�,�“ but the highest probability right now is for one more high above 1.2769 in a 5th wave to complete a 5 wave bull sequence.  Price must remain above the 9/29 high at 1.2567 for the 5 wave scenario to play out.  A break above 1.2769 would expose the 4/21 high at 1.2822.

USD/CAD â�,�“ After piercing the 1.1400 figure, the USDCAD has retreated to 1.1375 as short term oscillators correct from overbought and divergent readings.  Daily CCI is extreme at over 100 but it takes a break below the trendline at 1.1336 in order to suggest that a deeper correction is underway.  In that case, Fibonacci support begins at 1.1288 (38.2% of 1.1085-1.1413).  Strength above 1.1413 probes the 7/24 high at 1.1456.

AUD/USD â�,�“ The Aussie rally has extended past the 38.2% of .7721-.7413 at .7530 to .7553 yesterday but the doji on the daily suggests reversal potential.  The former range high at .7573 is resistance on a break above .7573.  The combination of 240 minute RSI near overbought territory suggests that immediate upside potential is limited.  A drop below the 10/13 low at .7488 instills confidence in the downside.

NZD/USD â�,�“ Kiwi extended to .6658 yesterday to make a double top (at least in the interim) with the 10/5 high at .6657.  The pair has consolidated between .6539 and .6657 since 10/2.  It takes a break of one of these barriers to establish some directional bias.  The 4 month trendline drawn through .5927, .6375, and .6545 is currently at .6561.  A two day close below there would imply a reversal lower.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.