CAD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ CADJPY is testing the low side of the month and a half 103.64-106.36 range.  Support near the range low is reinforced by the 5 month trendline drawn through 98.25 and 100.96 near 103.33 (increases about 4 pips per day).  240 minute RSI is oversold at 24 and suggests that near term weakness is limited.  A bounce encounters initial resistance at the 10/12 low at 104.93.  A break below the aforementioned supporting trendline could signal the beginning of a larger downtrend.

CHF/JPY ââ,¬â€œ CHFJPY has also come into a support zone from lows throughout September that stretch to 93.04.  Price is also at the lower Bollinger band, which has proved itself as support over the last 4 months.  Daily CCI is extreme at below -100 ââ,¬â€œ a cross above -100 would improve the odds of a turn higher.  93.04 needs to hold in order to stem the risk of a breakout to the downside.  A push above 94.20 bolsters the bullish case.

NZD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ NZDJPY has ranged between 79.09 and 78.16 for the last week ââ,¬â€œ most recently bouncing off of 78.16.  Bearish divergence with oscillators on the daily and negative MACD slope favor the downside but a break below the month and a half trendline drawn through 70.28 and 73.97 is required to confidently suggest that the pair has reversed lower.  That line is at 77.38 today and increases about 12 pips per day.  A break below gives scope to the first bearish target at the 9/8 low at 73.97 but a break above the 10/11 high at 79.09 exposes the 61.8% fibo of the December 2005 ââ,¬â€œ May 2006 87.05-67.76 bear wave at 79.65.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.