EUR/USD â�,�“ The EURUSD remains just above the shelf of support at 1.2456/81.  The 200 day SMA at 1.2476 reinforces support at this level.  A break below the 7/19 low at 1.2456 opens up the door for additional losses towards the 1/25 high at 1.2323.  As mentioned yesterday â�,��"it appears that 5 waves are down from 1.2765.  Fibonacci resistance begins at the 38.2% of 1.2765-1.2483 at 1.2590.â�,�  The combination of an inside day at the lower Bollinger band on the daily is a setup that we have found to be fairly accurate.  This occurred yesterday.

USD/JPY â�,�“ The USDJPY has dipped below the 10/9 low at 118.81 and tested the 50% fibo of 117.35-119.87 at 118.61 this morning.  The 61.8% is at 118.31 and is additional support along with the 10/2 high at 118.39.  5 waves are down from 119.87, there is bullish divergence with RSI on the hourly, and RSI is increasing from below 30.  The short term evidence points to a rally attempt from near current price.  Only a break below the 5 month trendline drawn through 108.96 and 116.07 would turn the daily picture bearish.  That line is at 117.33 today.

GBP/USD â�,�“ Cable has firmed to above 1.8650 and bullish signals are evident on the daily.  CCI has crossed above -100 and MACD has changed slope (now positive).  A continuation of strength probes the 38.2% of 1.9072-1.8515 at 1.8726.  240 minute RSI is steadily increasing as well â�,�“and at 63 is not yet overbought.  The 10/11 low at 1.8515 remains support â�,�“ a break lower opens up the door for a test of the 7/25 low at 1.8383.

USD/CHF â�,�“ The USDCHF has slipped below the 1.2700 figure but remains above a trendline through 1.2288, 1.2404, and 1.2488.  That line is at 1.2640 (line increases about 7 pips every 4 hours).  It appears that 5 waves are up from 1.2404 and a drop through the aforementioned trendline at 1.2640 instills confidence in the downside.  A break above 1.2769 negates the immediate bearish interpretation and could lead to gains towards the 4/21 high at 1.2822.  Daily CCI remains extreme at above 100.

USD/CAD â�,�“ The USDCAD has sold slipped from 1.1390 but also remains above a trendline drawn through 1.1085, and 1.1210.  That line is at 1.1316 (reinforced by the 10/13 low at 1.1319) and is a good point of reference from which to establish a bias.  Support on a break below the trendline is the 9/20 high at 1.1294 and price needs to stay above there in order to keep the bullish structure on the daily intact.  The 7/24 high at 1.1456 is the next bullish target.     

AUD/USD â�,�“ The Aussie rally has extended past the 38.2% of .7721-.7413 at .7530 to .7553 tonight.  The combination of 240 minute RSI near overbought territory and the former range high at .7573 as resistance suggests that immediate upside potential is limited.  A drop below the 10/13 low at .7488 instills confidence in the downside.  

NZD/USD â�,�“ Kiwi has followed the Aussie and rallied to .6640.  Still resistance is just above at .6657 from the 9/18, and 10/5 highs.  The pair has consolidated between .6539 and .6657 since 10/2.  It takes a break of one of these barriers to establish some directional bias.  The 4 month trendline drawn through .5927, .6375, and .6545 is currently at .6550.  A two day close below there would imply a reversal lower.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.