EUR/JPY ââ,¬â€œ EURJPY may be turning lower as the pair has declined 3 days in a row (today would be the 4th).  Price does remain in the 147.50 to 150.70 one and a half month consolidation though.  The pair has slipped below the 10 and 20 day SMAs.  The next support is the 5 month trendline that began on 5/17 at 140.19.  The line is at 148.79 today and increases about 9 pips per day.  A daily close below could trigger heavier selling towards the 9/8 low at 147.54.  Price must remain below the 8/31 high at 150.71 to keep the bearish interpretation of price action intact.

EUR/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The EURCHF made a long reverse hammer on Friday and made a double top with the 9/15 high at 1.5965 in the process (at the upper Bollinger band on the daily).  240 minute RSI is declining and now below the midpoint of 50 and price has slipped below a short term trendline.  The break of the trendline favors an eventual test of fibo support at the 38.2% of 1.5753-1.5961 at 1.5882.  It is possible that the rally from 1.5753 is a failed 5th wave of a 5 wave bullish sequence that began at 1.5448 on 5/18.  If this is the case, then a decline could be violent.

EUR/GBP ââ,¬â€œ EURGBP remains range bound between .6710 and .6790 but also below a resisting trendline drawn through .6958 and .6790.  Daily RSI is declining and below 50 ââ,¬â€œ which favors bears as well.  A nearly two and a half year supporting trendline (from a triangle) is at .6700.  Oversold 240 minute RSI limits downside risk and suggests that bears will have a difficult time breaking through the long term trendline.  However, a break below would expose the 6/23/2005 low at .6609.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.