EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The EURUSD begins the week at critical support.  The confluence of the 6/23 low / 200 day SMA at 1.2474/81 is just below Fridayââ,¬â"¢s low at 1.2483.  A break below the 7/19 low at 1.2456 opens up the door for additional losses towards the 1/25 high at 1.2323.  Bullish divergence with RSI at Fridayââ,¬â"¢s low favors a rally attempt.  Also, it appears that 5 waves are down from 1.2765.  Fibonacci resistance begins at the 38.2% of 1.2765-1.2483 at 1.2590.  Daily oscillators remain bearish but CCI is extreme at below -100. 

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The USDJPY has pushed made one more high at 119.87 but held below the 120.00 figure ââ,¬â€œ which is psychological resistance.  The pattern since 7/19 has taken the form of an ending diagonal.  This is a terminal pattern and usually ends in a thrust in the direction of the slope of the diagonal (in this case up).  This may be what is happening now.  Price often extends to a Fibonacci multiple of the widest point of the diagonal triangle.  In this case, the 161.8% Fibonacci level is a potential ending point for this rally.  The 161.8% of 117.88-113.95 is at 120.30.  A break back below 118.39 would suggest that the thrust higher is complete but it takes a decline below the trendline drawn through 108.96 and 116.07 to suggest that USDJPY has formed a significant top.  That trendline is at 117.20 today and increases about 10 pips per day.  Daily RSI poked through 70 last week.  Notice the last few times that RSI crossed below 70 ââ,¬â€œ the danger lies in an extended move higher.  Such was the case in 2005.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cable may be forming a base to work higher as the pair has held above 1.8515 since 10/11.  The pair remains trapped below a trendline on the daily drawn through 1.8090 and 1.8176.  A break above exposes Fibonacci resistance at the 38.2% of 1.8897-1.8515 at 1.8661 and the 61.8% at 1.8751.  Still, daily oscillators remain bearish and the 10 day SMA is below the 20 day SMA.  A break below 1.8515 gives scope to the next bearish target at the 7/25 low at 1.8383.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The USDCHF is still just below the 61.8% fibo of 1.3235-1.1919 at 1.2732.  A trendline through 1.2288, 1.2404, and 1.2488 is support at 1.2613 (line increases about 7 pips every 4 hours).  It appears that 5 waves are up from 1.2404 and a drop through the aforementioned trendline at 1.2613 instills confidence in the downside.  Bearish divergence with RSI at Fridayââ,¬â"¢s high suggests that upside potential is limited.  A break above 1.2769 negates the immediate bearish interpretation and could lead to gains towards the 4/21 high at 1.2822.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The USDCAD is firm as the pair has rallied to and exceeded the 10/12 high at 1.1386 to 1.1390.  The pair remains above the 200 day SMA ââ,¬â€œ which bolsters the longer term bullish implications.  The immediate bias is bullish as long as price remains above the trendline drawn through 1.1085 and 1.1210.  The line is at 1.1300 today. 

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The Aussie remains firm as the pair has extended to the 38.2% of .7721-.7413 at .7530.  Only a break above the range high at .7573 suggests additional upside potential.  Daily oscillators are increasing and do remain bullish.  RSI is above 50, MACD slope is positive and 21 day momentum is positive for the first day since 9/7.  

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Little has changed regarding the Kiwi.  The short term head and shoulders pattern and short term triangle are still visible.  Price is below the neckline at .6486 and the triangle was broken to the downside ââ,¬â€œ which favors a cautious bearish stance.  Bearish targets begin at the 9/11 low at .6342.  Daily oscillators are turning more bearish as CCI and 21 day momentum are both negative.  Price is just above the trendline that began in June.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.