EUR/USD â�,�“ Yesterday we focused on the fact that the EURUSD had declined 7 days in a row.  â�,��"Going back 10 years (using synthetic prices before 1999), this has happened 9 times (10 including this latest instance).  6 of the 9 times, the next day was an up day and the average close from the open was +42 pips.â�,�  Interestingly, the EURUSD rallied 41 pips yesterday.  The pair pushed to former congestion at the 1.2570-1.2613 zone but reversed at 1.2577.  240 minute RSI has turned down below 50 again and the pair could make a run at the 7/19 low at 1.2456 on a break of the 1.2500 figure.  The 200 day SMA is at 1.2472 as well.  If 1.2500 holds, then resistance remains the 38.2% of 1.2765-1.2500 at 1.2601.

USD/JPY â�,�“ The USDJPY has pushed made one more high at 119.83 but held below the 120.00 figure â�,�“ which is psychological resistance.  The pattern since 7/19 has taken the form of an ending diagonal.  This is a terminal pattern and usually ends in a thrust in the direction of the slope of the diagonal (in this case up).  This may be what is happening now.  Price often extends to a Fibonacci multiple of the widest point of the diagonal triangle.  In this case, the 161.8% Fibonacci level is a potential ending point for this rally.  The 161.8% of 117.88-113.95 is at 120.30.  A break back below 118.39 would suggest that the thrust higher is complete but it takes a decline below the trendline drawn through 108.96 and 116.07 to suggest that USDJPY has formed a significant top.  That trendline is at 117.10 today and increases about 10 pips per day.  RSI poked through 70 two days ago â�,�“ which doesnâ�,��"�t happen that often on a daily.  Notice the last few times that RSI crossed below 70 â�,�“ the danger lies in an extended move higher.      

GBP/USD â�,�“ Cable has managed to recoup some losses, rallying through the 1.8600 figure but stalling at the 9/29 low at 1.8632.  The low at 1.8515 from 10/11 has held.  As we mentioned yesterday, price was below the trendline drawn through 1.8090 and 1.8176 but we would like to see two days close below in order to establish confidence in the downside.  Yesterdayâ�,��"�s rally brought the pair back above the trendline and keeps open the possibility that Cable could challenge the upper end of what is looking like a triangle (on the daily).  The upper end of the triangle is near 1.9000.  Still, a break below 1.8515 exposes the next bearish target is the 7/25 low at 1.8383.  Fibonacci resistance going forward is at the 38.2% of 1.8897-1.8515 at 1.8661 and the 61.8% at 1.8751.

USD/CHF â�,�“ The USDCHF has held below the 61.8% fibo of 1.3235-1.1919 at 1.2732 (high at 1.2742 today) and slipped to 1.2664 before firming up in the last 4 hours.  A trendline through 1.2288, 1.2404, and 1.2488 is support at 1.2592 (line increases about 7 pips every 4 hours).  A line parallel to the aforementioned line and extended from 1.2567 intersects the high at 1.2742 â�,�“ but the recent consolidation looks like a 4th wave in what should be 5 waves up from 1.2288.  Probability favors a rally to a new high followed by a more material decline.  A drop through 1.2633 instills more confidence in the downside.  A break above 1.2742 negates the immediate bearish interpretation and could lead to gains towards the 4/21 high at 1.2822.

USD/CAD â�,�“ The high at 1.1386 from yesterday has held as the USDCAD is little changed today.  The pair remains above the 200 day SMA â�,�“ which bolsters the longer term bullish implications.  The pair may need to correct a bit more before aggressive buying comes in.  RSI on the hourly has slipped below 50 and gives scope to a deeper correction.  A dip below todayâ�,��"�s low at 1.1319 (also the 38.2% of 1.1210-1.1386) could see losses extend to a supporting trendline near 1.1280.    

AUD/USD â�,�“ The Aussie remains firm as the pair holds above .7500.  The rally has stalled just below the 38.2% of .7721-.7413 at .7523.  The 38.2% is at .7530.  240 minute RSI is rolling over from above 70 and suggests that the upside is limited.  The former range of .7481-.7573 could prove to be formidable resistance.  Only a break above the range high at .7573 suggests that there is more upside potential.

NZD/USD â�,�“ Kiwi has been lifeless since 10/10 â�,�“ ranging between .6565 and .6616.  This is the time to watch for a breakout though.  A short term head and shoulders pattern is visible.  Price must remain below .6721 to keep the bearish structure intact.  A break below the 10/2 low at .6486 completes the h & s reversal pattern.  Bears would then set sights on the 9/11 low at .6342.  A rally off the trendline drawn through .6342, .6486, and .6539 has pushed above the .6600 figure but prices remain trapped in consolidation until a break above .6721 or below .6486.  Price is almost at the apex of a triangle and pivot points for a breakout are .6657 on the high side and .6539 on the low side.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.