EUR/USD â�,�“ The EURUSD remains range-bound between 1.2630 and 1.2752.  Range trading that has taken hold of the market since 9/11 is nothing more than a consolidation following the 1.2880-1.2630 decline.  Scope remains for a test of the upper end of the range to complete the correction of weakness to 1.2630 but the larger picture remains bearish due to the break below the 1 month (1.2754) and 3 month (1.2723) SMAs and trendline from 2/27.  If 1.2630 support is given, then focus is on the confluence of the 78.6% of 1.2456-1.2938 / 7/26 low at 1.2557. 

USD/JPY â�,�“ The USDJPY has made a short term triple bottom at the 117.00 figure.  This support suggests that near term downside potential may be limited.  A break below the 117.00 figure targets the 61.8% of 115.55-118.28 at 116.60 â�,�“ an optimal price area for the pair to bottom since 116.47 is the price where corrective wave a (118.28-116.98) would equal corrective wave c (beginning at 117.77).  The larger picture is turning a bit more bearish as MACD slope (daily) is now negative.  Still, a push above 117.51 exposes the 9/20 high at 117.75. 

GBP/USD â�,�“ Cable has rallied materially from the triangle discussed yesterday and seems poised to test the 78.6% fibo of 1.9091-1.8602 at 1.8986.  This is also very close to the 138.2% fibo of 1.8918-1.8733 at 1.8988.  A topping scenario is favored by hourly oscillators, which are overbought and exhibit divergence at current price.  The extent of this rally from 1.8733 suggests that the pair is tracing out a c wave â�,�“ this is the final rally to complete the correction of the 1.9091-1.8602 decline.  A break back below 1.8918 would begin to suggest that the rally is over and that the path of least resistance is down.  

USD/CHF â�,�“ We mentioned yesterday that â�,��"the USDCHF has crept below the supporting trendline from 1.2227, implying that weakness in the pair going forward.â�,�  The pair has declined and is currently testing Fibo support at the 38.2% of 1.2227-1.2622 at 1.2472.  A break below there could extend to the 61.8% at 1.2378.  Daily CCI has turned over from above 100, which favors lower prices.  Still, bulls point to positive 22 day momentum and hourly studies are near oversold territory.  A break above 1.2622 targets the 61.8% of 1.3235-1.1919 at 1.2732.        

USD/CAD â�,�“ The USDCAD has retraced a portion of its gains, testing former resistance at 1.1235 as support.  As we remarked yesterday, â�,��"the 5 wave rally from 1.1028 to 1.1294 sets the stage for a 3 wave correction.â�,�  We would appear to be in the beginning of this correction as price has yet to retrace even 38.2% of the rally.  The 38.2% fibo is at 1.1193 and is initial support.  A break above 1.1294 targets the 8/15 high at 1.1319.     

AUD/USD â�,�“ AUDUSD made a short term triple top this morning at .7569 and continues to trade within a .7500-.7569 range.  The consolidation has taken place following the decline from .7721, thus probability favors a break lower rather than higher.  The 66 day (3 month) SMA has contained prices since 9/11 and remains resistance near .7550.  The 9/13 low at .7481 remains support.  A break below .7481 exposes the 61.8% of .7270-.7721 at .7442.

NZD/USD â�,�“ Kiwi has formed a short term head and shoulders (visible on the hourly).  A break below the 9/20 low at .6546 would complete the pattern and possibly trigger additional selling towards the 61.8% of .6341-.6657 at .6462.  Hourly studies are declining and thus bearish and daily CCI has declined from above 100, which favors a longer term turn lower.  The bearish stance is negated on a break above the 9/18 high at .6657.  Price would then probe the 61.8% of .7198-.5927 at .6712.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.