EUR/USD â�,�“ The range of the past 3 days (including today) has remained within Mondayâ�,��"�s 1.2647-1.2740 range.  There have been 2,008 trading days since the advent of the euro and this phenomenon (where 3 consecutive days remain confined to the previous dayâ�,��"�s range) has only occurred 36 times.  The average close 5 days after the 3rd dayâ�,��"�s close is 106 pips from the 3rd dayâ�,��"�s close.  In other words, the market tends to move, on average, 100 pips in one direction following the close of the 3rd day within the confined range. In summary, the tight range suggests that we are due for a breakout.  The short term triangle on the hourly favors a thrust to the downside to test the 1.2590-1.2612 zone.  This is the zone bound by the 161.8% and 138.2% Fibonacci levels of 1.2647-1.2740.  A break above 1.2740 negates the bearish stance.

USD/JPY â�,�“ We reiterated a bullish tone yesterday and focused on the â�,��"support zone from the 38.2% of 115.55-118.14 / 9/12 low at 117.15/36.â�,�  Yesterdayâ�,��"�s low was at 117.33 and USDJPY has rallied to 117.75.  However, bulls should be warned of a short term head and shoulders (possible right shoulder at current price).  It would take a break below 117.33 to complete the pattern.  A push above the 9/12 high at 118.14 exposes the 78.6% Fibonacci level of 121.38-108.96 at 118.70  â�,�“ at which point upside risk is limited due to the slowing momentum on the daily and the congestion from previous highs.

GBP/USD â�,�“ Cable strength has pushed above the 8/18 low at 1.8775.  Still, the rally from 1.8602 is far more corrective in nature than the decline from 1.9091 to 1.8602.  Hourly RSI is above 70 and MACD exhibits bearish divergence at current price.  Resistance is stacked from current level to the 1.8900 figure with the 10 day SMA at 1.8830, the 9/7 high at 1.8869, the 20 day SMA at 1.8880 and the 61.8% Fibonacci level of 1.9091-1.8602 at 1.8903.  The evidence points to a move lower from nearby levels but only a break below 1.8602 suggests that the bear trend is back underway.

USD/CHF â�,�“ From yesterday â�,��"The USDCHF rallied to the 7/25 high (1.2546) today and has created a double top.  Hourly RSI has declined from below 70 â�,�“ suggesting that the pair may retrace more strength in the short term.  Initial support is at the 38.2% of 1.2227-1.2548 at 1.2426.â�,�  The pair may be making its way towards 1.2426 but there is support before at a trendline from the 8/31 low (1.2227) at about 1.2445.  A break below the 1.2426 exposes the 61.8% at 1.2350.  The 5 wave uptrend from 1.2227 suggests that this move lower is corrective and that Fibonacci supports should hold.

USD/CAD â�,�“ From yesterday â�,�“ â�,��"We still favor the upside over the longer term but the inability of the pair to break above 1.1226 the last two days suggests that we may see a deeper retracement.â�,�  USDCAD has indeed slipped and is nearing support from the confluence of the 38.2% of 1.1156-1.1235 / 9/12 low at 1.1154/56.  If support there fails, then weâ�,��"�ll look towards the 61.8% at 1.1107.

AUD/USD â�,�“ AUDUSD has crept higher to .7550 in what looks like the 3rd wave of a 3 wave corrective move.  Fibo support is just above at the 38.2% of .7721-.7481 at .7573.  This would also be the exact point at which a (.7505-.7545) would equal c (beginning at .7509).  We found that last weekâ�,��"�s candle took out the previous 4 weekâ�,��"�s highs and lows, and then closed below the lowest 4 week low â�,�“ making a 4 week reversal candle to the downside.  The only other time that this happened (going back 10 years) was during the week that ended May 23, 1997.  That week marked the beginning of a major downtrend.  Bolstering the bearish outlook is the 10 day crossing below the 20 day SMA yesterday.

NZD/USD â�,�“ Kiwi has taken off, blasting by the 9/4 high at .6580.   The next potential resistance area is the confluence of the 12/23/2005 low / 61.8% of .7198-.5927 at .6700/11.  There is bearish divergence on the daily with oscillators â�,�“ indicating that price could reverse at the aforementioned resistance zone.  A break back below the 9/4 high at .6580 would favor bears.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.