EUR/USD â�,�“ On Friday, we mentioned that â�,��"corrective wave c (beginning at 1.2874) would equal corrective wave a (1.2938-1.2723) at 1.2659â�,� and that â�,��"Bullish divergence with oscillators on the hourly favor a rally attemptâ�,�.  The pair bottomed at 1.2647 but the ensuing rally has been uninspiring, unfolding in a 3 wave pattern.  A 5 wave decline from 1.2875 to 1.2647 favors the downside, although a push above the 9/8 and 9/11 highs at 1.2740 is still possible.  Bearish signals are plenty on the daily â�,�“ RSI below 50, a break (if even momentarily) of the supporting trendline from 1.1825, negative MACD, and a daily close below the lower Bollinger band on 9/8.  The daily close below the BB is an unquestionable sign of weakness.  A break below 1.2747 encounters the 7/26 low at 1.2557.

USD/JPY â�,�“ USDJPY has broken above a trendline from 121.38 and the 9/1 high at 117.48, suggesting that prices are ultimately headed to the 78.6% fibo of 121.38-108.96 at 118.70 (also previous congestion area).  There is slight bearish divergence with oscillators on the daily, but the break above the trendline can not be ignored.  Price has consolidated following yesterdayâ�,��"�s rally to 117.77 but the pair is at support from a former supporting trendline turned resistance (turned support againâ�,�¦see chart below).  Support is at the 9/7 high at 117.05 on a break lower.

GBP/USD â�,�“ Cable has retraced a portion of its 1.9091-1.8602 decline but strength may be nearing an end as hourly RSI is nearing overbought territory.  Resistance from the 38.2% fibo of 1.9091-1.8602 / 8/18 low is just above at 1.8775/88.  Like EURUSD, GBPUSD closed below the lower Bollinger band (daily) on Friday.  One look at a daily chart with Bollinger bands shows that a close above or below the BBâ�,��"�s usually experiences a continuation move.  A break below the 9/11 low at 1.8602 exposes the next bearish target at the 61.8% of 1.8090-1.9144 at 1.8495.

USD/CHF â�,�“ The USDCHF has retreated from its 1.2506 high (9/8) and is approaching a trendline from 1.2227.  The previously described Bollinger band situation occurred Friday as USDCHF closed above the upper BB.  The last instance of this was on 6/8 at 1.2317 â�,�“ the pair rallied over 200 pips in the weeks that followed.  Upside momentum is strong as the 10 day SMA closed above the 20 day SMA yesterday.  A break above 1.2506 exposes the 7/19 high at 1.2595.

USD/CAD â�,�“ We said on Friday that â�,��"a break above 1.1137 instills confidence in the upsideâ�,�.  That break took place and the pair has digested gains to 1.1226, falling back to 1.1175 yesterday and today.  Former resistance at 1.1137 is now support.  The upside remains favored as long as 1.11347 holds.  The next resistance area is the zone bound by the 61.8% of 1.1456-1.1028 / 8/15 high at 1.1292/1.1319.

AUD/USD â�,�“ After plummeting from .7713 to .7499 in 4 days, AUDUSD has finally held steady.  The break below the 8/25 low at .7549 (now resistance) confirms out bearish bias.  A push above .7549 faces fibo resistance at .7583 (38.2% of .7721-.7499).  The next support area is at the 200 day SMA at .7467.  We found that last weekâ�,��"�s candle took out the previous 4 weekâ�,��"�s highs and lows, and then closed below the lowest 4 week low â�,�“ making a 4 week reversal candle to the downside.  This only other time that this happened (going back 10 years) was during the week that ended May 23, 1997.  That week marked the beginning of a major downtrend.

NZD/USD â�,�“ Kiwi has retraced 38.2% of its decline to .6242 to .6433.  The pair looks like it is giving way to weakness again though as hourly RSI is retreating from overbought territory.  Daily oscillators are mostly bearish as MACD slope and CCI are both negative.  A resisting trendline from .6580 is also at todayâ�,��"�s high (.6435).  A break below .6342 exposes the 8/14 low at .6273.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.