EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The EURUSD has pushed higher to test the trendline from the 6/5 high at 1.2976.  A push above the 8/4 and 8/11 highs at 1.2908/11 targets the 6/5 high at 1.2976.  However, the move higher could be nearing an end as RSI on the hourly is falling from above 70.  More importantly, hourly oscillators show bearish divergence at the recent high.  Fibo support is at the 38.2% fibo of 1.2780-1.2906 at 1.2858. 

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The USDJPY continued to trade near 115.50 as strength has been held at bay by a resisting trendline from 116.74.  A continuation of weakness probes the 161.8% extension of 116.74-115.82 (from 116.37) at 114.87.  The 8/10 low at 114.65 is just below as well.  Daily MACD shows negative slope, RSI is below 50 (daily), and the pair is below the 20 day SMA ââ,¬â€œ all confirming the larger bearish bias.  

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cable has rallied after bottoming out on Friday at the 38.2% fibo of 1.8176-1.9144 at 1.8775.  Todayââ,¬â"¢s rally has sent the pair nearly 200 pips higher.  However, the rally has stalled at the confluence of the 50% fibo of 1.9144-1.8775 / trendline from 1.9144 at 1.8960.  This combined with overbought hourly RSI limits upside potential in the near term.  A break higher would expose the 61.8% fibo of 1.9144-1.8775 at 1.9002.  Support is at Fridayââ,¬â"¢s high at 1.8868.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The USDCHF has plummeted following Fridayââ,¬â"¢s doji.  The pair is currently just below the 8/17 low at 1.2236.  A continuation of weakness probes the triple bottom (7/7, 8/4, 8/10 lows) at 1.2190.  A break below there would complete a head and shoulders and possible see weakness to the 78.6% fibo of 1.1919-1.2595 at 1.2064.  However, as is the case with the other majors (USDJPY the exception), the move against the dollar may be nearing its terminus, at least in the near term.  A bounce from current levels would suggest that a triangle is forming.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The pair appears to be tracing out the 3rd wave of a correction from 1.1456.  Where might this correction end before buying returns?  The 3rd corrective wave (beginning at 1.1319) would equal the first (1.1456-1.1170) at 1.1033.  This is significant because the 78.6% fibo of 1.0927-1.1456 is at 1.1040 (just 7 pips away).  This fits with the notion that initial moves at turning points are often retraced a large amount before a continuation.  The initial move in this case is 1.0927-1.1456.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ As we have focused on in recent commentary, the longer term bias is a bearish one as evidenced by the bearish divergence with oscillators on the daily at recent highs and a resisting trendline from the 3/8 high at .7988.  The pair has rallied off of the low on Friday (.7551) and is nearing the 61.8% fibo of .7699-.7551 at .7642.  This level combined with hourly oscillators nearing overbought give scope to a resumption of the downtrend.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi is hardly changed from Friday.  The pair broke above the trendline from.6443 on Thursday but currently tests resistance from the 38.2% fibo of .7197-.5927 at .6412.  RSI on the daily is just below 70 and the rally from .5927 is in 3 waves and thus corrective ââ,¬â€œ meaning that the larger downtrend may soon continue.  However, the point where the third wave (beginning at .6143) would equal the first (.5927-.6282) is .6498.  This is 80 pips from current price.  One final push higher before a resumption of the downtrend is one possible scenario.  A push above .6498 probes the 50% fibo of .7197-.5927 at .6561.  However, with extreme CCI on the daily (above 100) and RSI very near extreme, the likelihood of a sustained rally is not great.  In addition, Thursdayââ,¬â"¢s inside day at the upper Bollinger band points to a potential change in trend.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.