EUR/AUD - We were bullish last week after "RSI shows bullish divergence at today's 1.6579 low - suggesting a turn higher". The rally from 1.6689 now equals the 1.6571 to 1.6773 rally and RSI on the hourly shows negative divergence at the high from today (1.6892). A decline from current levels could test the 38.2% fibo of 1.6571-1.6893 at 1.6770 (also 8/15 high at 1.6773). The next support area would be the confluence of the 61.8% fibo / 8/15 low at 1.6690/94. The larger trend is bullish as evidenced by steadily rising oscillators on the daily. A break above 1.6892 exposes the 8/8 high at 1.6924.
EUR/CAD - Since March, EURCAD has formed a slightly contracting upward sloping channel. A long term resisting trendline (from the 12/23 high at 1.6702) is just above 1.4500 and should provide resistance on rallies. Within the aforementioned channel, price last bounced off of the upper end on 8/4 at 1.4587. The bias then is for a return to the lower end of the channel in a 5th wave (a-b-c-d-e). Price is testing support at the a short term support line from the 8/11 low at 1.4241. A break below there could then trigger the selling that takes the pair lower. Of note as well is the pair just slipping below the 20 day SMA.
EUR/NZD - The daily shows an obvious head and shoulders pattern and the pair is approaching a triple bottom (in this case also the neckline) at 1.9920. A break below there targets the 5/3 low at 1.9585. The near term may see a bounce higher as hourly conditions are oversold and the pair is nearing minor support from the 8/16 low at 1.9966. Resistance is at today's high at 2.0121 and the 8/14 high at 2.0272.
Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.