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Euro Commodity Crosses Diverge
By Jamie Saettele | Published  08/18/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Euro Commodity Crosses Diverge

EUR/AUD - We were bullish last week after "RSI shows bullish divergence at today's 1.6579 low - suggesting a turn higher".  The rally from 1.6689 now equals the 1.6571 to 1.6773 rally and RSI on the hourly shows negative divergence at the high from today (1.6892).  A decline from current levels could test the 38.2% fibo of 1.6571-1.6893 at 1.6770 (also 8/15 high at 1.6773).  The next support area would be the confluence of the 61.8% fibo / 8/15 low at 1.6690/94.  The larger trend is bullish as evidenced by steadily rising oscillators on the daily.  A break above 1.6892 exposes the 8/8 high at 1.6924.

EUR/CAD - Since March, EURCAD has formed a slightly contracting upward sloping channel.  A long term resisting trendline (from the 12/23 high at 1.6702) is just above 1.4500 and should provide resistance on rallies.  Within the aforementioned channel, price last bounced off of the upper end on 8/4 at 1.4587.  The bias then is for a return to the lower end of the channel in a 5th wave (a-b-c-d-e).  Price is testing support at the a short term support line from the 8/11 low at 1.4241.  A break below there could then trigger the selling that takes the pair lower.  Of note as well is the pair just slipping below the 20 day SMA.

EUR/NZD - The daily shows an obvious head and shoulders pattern and the pair is approaching a triple bottom (in this case also the neckline) at 1.9920.  A break below there targets the 5/3 low at 1.9585.  The near term may see a bounce higher as hourly conditions are oversold and the pair is nearing minor support from the 8/16 low at 1.9966.  Resistance is at today's high at 2.0121 and the 8/14 high at 2.0272.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.