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British Pound Crosses Stall
By Jamie Saettele | Published  08/10/2006 | Currency | Unrated
British Pound Crosses Stall

GBP/JPY - GBPJPY may be turning lower after printing its first red candle in 8 days yesterday.  Bearish divergence with CCI on the daily along with CCI crossing below 100 is compelling evidence of a turn.  The 161.8% fibo of 208.06-189.53 is at 219.48 - not far below yesterday's high at 220.10.  Turning points often occur at such important Fibonacci relationships.  Support is at the 38.2% fibo of 212.93-220.10 at 217.36 as well as the confluence of the 50% fibo / 7/20 high at 216.53.  A push above yesterday's high (viewed as unlikely) would expose the 78.6% fibo of 240.96-148.29 at 220.96.

GBP/CHF - GBP/CHF has stalled at the 78.6% fibo of 2.3912-2.1473 at 2.3387.  There is bearish divergence with CCI and CCI has dipped below 100 - indicating possible weakness going forward.  However, the hourly shows a 3 wave correction from the 2.3412 high, which is suggestive of another leg up to at least test the 2.3412 high.  The 4/20/2004 high at 2.3489 would be potential resistance on a break above 2.3412.

GBP/AUD - GBP/AUD made a triple top with the 5/22 high and a series of highs from 6/2 to 6/7 with the 8/8 and 8/9 highs at 2.5139.  The pair has since plummeted to test the 2.4700 handle.  The decline has stalled at the 505 fibo of 2.4240-2.5142 at 2.4691.  Additional losses expose the 61.8% fibo at 2.4586.  Further, there is a supporting trendline originating from the 3/2 low at 2.3351 that comes in around 2.4350.  The severity of the decline over the last two days has left RSI on the hourly extremely oversold - leaving open the possibility of a bounce in the short term.  Resistance is at the 8/9 low at 2.4843.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.