An absolutely wild trading range followed the Fed's move of no action, and accompanying dovish comments sent the dollar shorts running for cover. The Fed caught the market off guard by speaking of inflation being moderated overtime and contained inflation expectations going forward. One would expect to see EUR/USD at 1.3000 with such soft talk like this, but it goes to show that price action is king. Apparently, the market was so long EUR/USD that there was hardly anyone left to buy, so profit takers came in and reversed all the gains on the day.
We, however, were not the late comers. We came into today nice and long EUR/USD at a solid price of 1.2830 with a target for half uptown at 1.2880. The high bid we saw was 1.2891, so you grabbed at least 50 points on half and likely stopped at breakeven or better on the rest. On a day that most likely saw more blood in the streets than parades, we should be happy.

The dollar needs to sort itself out right now as the ranges in the majors are quickly forming. EUR/JPY is on its third test of all-time highs of 148.00, so that's where we should be looking. For tonight, let's look to get long a half of a position at current levels, around 147.90, with stops under 147.60. Then, wait for a new high of 148.20 to be made before we bid for the pullback to 148.05 for the other half. Stops should then be around 147.85 for both halves and the initial target is 148.45. The target is the 1.618 Fib extension, not shown, of the 148.01 high down to 147.36 low.

Todd Gordon is a Technical Currency Strategist and Fund Trader with GAIN Capital Group.
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