What a battle in New York at EURUSD 1.2650. As shown below, London and Europe were steady EUR/USD buyers up to our trendline resistance until New York traders came for the morning to halt the advance. Philly Fed is at noon today, which could provide a resolution to the conflict.

A trendline break at 1.2625 will get the ball rolling on our EUR/USD average short 1.2635. If you are lightly positioned ahead of the number, you could use the trendline break to add to your position. If they can't get EUR/USD above 1.2655 soon, they will likely sell it hard after Philly Fed.

Todd Gordon is a Technical Currency Strategist and Fund Trader with GAIN Capital Group.

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