It was a rather pivotal day as the dollar pairs pushed hard into significant resistance levels above, but wound up with more than it could handle and finished the day well into the negative. EUR/USD tried for the second day to push below the Sept 1.2589 high, but buyers were not having it as the euro strength put rates above 1.2600 on the New York close. Cable is still well below its September high of 1.8500, but struggling to get back above.  USD/JPY is well above the September high, mainly attributable to EUR/JPY strength, but is facing its fair share of dollar resistance.

March lows of 115.50 are giving USD/JPY all it can handle, combined with a series of Fib resistance levels forming a bearish Gartley, tell us that the dollar strength we have been playing for some many weeks could be just about over.

I'm thinking there might be one more push above 115.40 on a last ditch effort by the dollar bulls, which are being setup to fail. So here's the play. Aggressive traders who don't want to miss a trade by the spread can be short anywhere between 115.00 and 115.20 with stops above 115.70.  Those who are more conservative can wait for price to break higher and short into the 115.50 test with stops above 115.70 risking that the market never breaks above 50 and missing the trade. Personally, I'm waiting for a break uptown to get short, as to not revenge trade the market from this morning's tough miss. Targets are open because this is potentially a trend-changing dollar move.

Todd Gordon is a Technical Currency Strategist and Fund Trader with GAIN Capital Group.

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The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.