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Great Bull Has More To Run
By Mike Paulenoff | Published  05/9/2006 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Great Bull Has More To Run

My outlook this week on equity indices remains bullish, gold still has a bit more to run, and the pause in oil shouldn't last long.

Beginning with the S&P 500 (SPX), my hourly work argues that the upmove off of last Wednesday's low at 1303.92 is not yet complete on the upside.  Monday's action represented a sideways congestion period that so far has carved-out a high-level continuation pattern, which by definition should resolve itself to the upside in another thrust that projects to 1330-34. 

At this juncture only a decline in the SPX that sustains below 1317 will begin to compromise my still-bullish outlook.

Moving over to the Nasdaq, the upleg off of last week's low at 41.38 in the Nasdaq 100 Tracking Stock (QQQQ) hit a high Monday morning of 42.28.  The upmove appears tired here, and in need of some backing and filling into the 41.90/80 support area prior to my expectations of another potent upmove.

Unless or until the May 3 low at 41.28 is violated, we want to be long the Q's for a run at new 2006 highs above 43.31.

Looking at commodities, as a great bull market should do, gold continues to defy its suspect, overbought oscillators as it grinds to higher-highs (almost on a daily basis) after each minor pullback. After Monday's swoon to about 10-$13/oz., early in the session, spot gold recovered to close just $4 lower than Friday, and so far early Tuesday has rocketed to a new high at 692.40.

With $700/ounce just over 1% away, we have to figure that the price structure will make a run at the next big figure prior to the emergence of any profit-taking measures.

As for oil, Monday evening, my work pointed to a bit more weakness into the 67.50-66.50 target zone prior to my expectation for the start of a new upleg. 

However, based on the micro pattern carved-out off of Monday's spike low at 68.25 to Tuesday morning's high at 70.26, my work now argues that the correction from the 4/21 high at 75.35 likely ended yesterday evening at 68.25. 

Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical chart analysis and trading alerts on all major markets. For more of Mike Paulenoff, sign up for a free 15-Day trial to his MPTrader Diary by clicking here.