The dollar weakness of the last 48 hours is certainly undisputable, especially with lower than expected New Housing Starts, but the lack of conviction and follow-through in the majors is of some concern to me.  For the last hour, I sat here trying to formulate today's game plan in this weak dollar environment and watched EUR/USD struggle at the 1.2300 level, USD/CHF come up 12 points short of the 1.2700 level, and USD/JPY without even a prayer below 117.50. It's likely that these levels will give way, but with this sort of price action, it doesm't appear that we'll see it in this round of dollar selling.

The fact remains that USD/CHF is trading well below the 16-month weekly trendline and the daily .786 support was tested just above the figure at 1.2703 without confirmation from the Momentum Indicator that the fresh low was valid.

Dropping down to the intraday 5-minute chart, we find a nice technical setup to get short against the 1.2750 level. The downtrend channel born last night in London, which carried us to the New York low of 1.2710, offers an AB=CD, .707 Fib resistance level at the upper end of the channel at 1.2750. Stops should be above the 1.2770 swing point high and initial targets should be a retest of the 1.2710 low. Carry a piece into the 2:00 p.m. ET economic release if there is enough profit in the trade.

The Fed minutes of the March meeting are scheduled to be released at 2:00 p.m. ET today and should provide traders some guidance of future rate hikes in the U.S. EUR/JPY remains a very tough nut to crack while USD/JPY remains above 117.50. The price traded down to a 144.15 low in London and we had approximately 25 points profit in the trade last night before reversing higher towards our stops.

Todd Gordon is a Technical Currency Strategist and Fund Trader with GAIN Capital Group.

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The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.