• EUR/USD Fibonacci Pattern Showed Us the High Trade in EUR/USD
• Gartley Pattern Continuation Faces EUR/USD Trendline Support at Current Levels - 1.1900 Next Target
• Will Offered Oil Bring USD/CAD Buyers To 1.1800

Unexpected hawkishness from the FOMC left the door wide open for another hike in the May which brought firm Dollar buying throughout the New York afternoon. The 2:15 pm EST announcement did not start the Dollar buying party however, as a strong CPI reading at the New York open brought the buyers into the pit.

The top-end level for our third Gartley play in row this week was EUR/USD 1.2109 which wound up being the absolute high. EUR/USD sellers brought the pair down to a 1.2060 low at mid-day in New York before the bottom fell out after the afternoon Fed announcement to a 1.1995 New York low.

As much as I wish I could tell you I was short the Gartley pre-Fed and made a big figure, it's just not the case. Symmetry of the measured AB=CD move placed the 1.2100-10 high into the Asian open and not at 8:30 AM EST. Moreover, it's difficult to hold positions leading up to Fed day as the market can be whippy and directionless. Looking back, we can see the power of this particular Gartley pattern as the market was heading lower regardless of the out come of the news.

We look for continuation lower from the Gartley that faces minor trendline support at 1.1980. Should we see this level crack, 1.272 Ext and .786 Ret at 1.1905 and 06 will be the week-ending targets.

Use the initial 1.1980 trendline break to a 1.1965 area low followed by a retracement to 1.1990-95 to short EUR/USD with stops above 1.2025. You could scale out of portions of your positions at the March 23 low of 1.1950, but hold a piece for the ride down to Fib support at 1.1905.

Over to the commodities side Crude Oil is forming a massive bearish Gartley pattern of its own pointing to a $67.00 / Barrel resistance level. Oil inventories are out today at 10:30 AM EST which could push Crude a Dollar higher into our resistance level. If you find the 67.00 level holds and price starts to get heavy, look for USD/CAD to continue it's recent uptrend towards 1.1800. Quotes for Crude are available for free on many places on the internet and can be easily located with a Google search.

Use simple uptrend line pullbacks or indicator buy signals to get long USDCAD.  There are still many shorts our there with likely stops above 1.1800 .  There is blood in the Canadian waters and the market can smell it. 

Todd Gordon is a Technical Currency Strategist and Fund Trader with GAIN Capital Group.

Disclaimer
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.