Thus far, the e-SPH has failed to exhibit any sustained buying pressure, which has enabled the index to continue to slide off of last Friday's secondary recovery high at 1299. Today's earlier session low at 1271.75 represented a 62% "give back" of the entire prior upleg from 1255.75 to 1299.75, which usually provides meaningful support if the dominant uptrend remains up. During the next two hours, we will find out if the trend is up, and if today is a Turnaround Tuesday. A sustained rally above 1278.50 is needed to trigger initial signals that the near term corrective process is complete, and that a recovery rally phase has started. Conversely, a sustained break below 1270 will argue that the dominant near-term trend is rolling over, and likely will exert enough downside pressure to test the February 8 low at 1255.75.

Mike Paulenoff is a 25-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his E-mini S&P and QQQQ technical analysis and trading alerts. For more of Mike Paulenoff, sign up for a FREE 30-Day Trial to his E-Mini/Index Futures diary, or try his QQQ Trading Diary.