EUR/USD - Euro longs continued to bounce below the psychologically important 1.2000 handle, a level established by the 38.2 Fib 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally and is further reinforced by the 50-day SMA as price action remained confined to a narrow trading range. As dollar bulls resume their advance and push the pair below the 1.1900 figure, the next move on the part of the greenback traders will most likely test the single currency bids 1.1865, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. A sustained momentum will most likely see the pair extend its decline and target euro's defenses around 1.1778, a level created by the December 30 daily low. A further move to the downside will most likely see the pair collapse below the 1.1700 figure and target bids around 1.1639, a level established by 2005 low, which currently acts as a gateway toward the psychologically important 1.1500 handle. Indicators are mixed with negative momentum indicator diverging from positive MACD, while oversold Stochastic gives the single currency longs a chance to retaliate.
USD/JPY - Japanese Yen longs launched a surprising countermove against the unsuspecting greenback bulls as pair crashed through the 118.00 figure. As yen longs continue to push the pair lower, a break below 117.31, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 104.16-121.46 USD rally will most likely see the pair test the dollar bids around 116.84, a combination of the 20-day and 50-day SMA's. A further move to the downside will most likely see the pair extend its decline toward 115.53, a level marked by the December 19 daily high, which currently acts as a gateway toward the psychologically important 115.00 handle. Indicators are favoring the dollar longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD above the zero line, while overbought Stochastic adds to the trending outlook.
GBP/USD - British pound longs managed to push the pair above the1.7400 figure, but failed to test the greenback offers around the psychologically important 1.7500 handle. In case greenback traders push back the advancing dollar longs, a further move to the downside most likely see the GBP/USD break below 1.7400 and take on sterling defenses around 1.7393, a 23.6 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally. A further collapse of the cable bids will most likely see the dollar longs extend their rally below the 1.7200 figure and target pound defenses around 1.7188, a level established by the January 3 daily low. A further downside momentum will most likely see the pair aim for 1.7048, a level defended by the November 11 daily low, breaking of which will most likely see the pair gain additional momentum and head below the psychologically important 1.7000 handle. Indicators are mixed with negative momentum indicator diverging from positive MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give the pair enough room to maneuver.
USD/CHF - Swiss Franc bulls continued to bounce in a tight range as the pair remained below the psychologically important 1.3000 handle. As dollar bulls launch another offensive and push USD/CHF above the 1.3000 figure, a move above 1.3037, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally, will most likely see the greenback traders extend their rally toward 1.3201, a level established by December 30 daily high. A further momentum on the part of the dollar traders will most likely see USD/CHF continue to gain ground and test Swissie's offers around 1.3285, a level established by the 2005 high. A confirmed break above the trading range's high will most likely see the pair aim for the next psychologically important 1.3500 handle. Indicators are mixed with negative momentum indicator diverging from positive MACD, while overbought Stochastic gives Swiss Franc bulls a chance to retaliate.
USD/CAD - Canadian dollar traders continued to keep the pair below the psychologically important 1.1500 handle, a level defended by the 20-day SMA as price action remained volatile. In case the price action swings in favor of the US dollar traders, a move above 1.1584, a level marked by the 50-day SMA will most likely see the USD/CAD head above 1.1600 figure and target the Loonie offers around 1.1697, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2733-1.1373 CAD rally. A further advance on the part of the greenback longs will most likely see the USD/CAD retreat toward the 1.1800 level, a level defended by the January 19 daily high at 1.1797. In case US dollar bulls manage to maintain the upside momentum, a further move to the upside will most likely see the pair advance toward the psychologically important 1.2000 handle. Indicators are favoring Canadian dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
AUD/USD - Australian dollar bulls managed to push the pair above the .7400 figure only to encounter active greenback offers around .7438, a level defended by the 38.2 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally As US dollar traders resume their advance a break below .7362, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally will most likely see the pair head lower and aim for the bids around .7321, a level created by the November 24 daily low. A further advance on the part of greenback bulls will most likely see the AUD/USD collapse below .7300 figure and target Aussie bids around .7234, a level defended by the December 27 daily low. A confirmed break below .7234 will most likely open the psychologically important .7000 handle as a target of opportunity for prospective US dollar bulls. Indicators are diverging with negative momentum indicator diverging from positive MACD, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar joined their Australian dollar counterparts and pushed the US dollar higher, with the swing to the upside testing greenback offers around .6835, a level marked by the 20-day SMA. In case Kiwi longs fail to advance further a subsequent reversal coupled with a move to the downside will most likely see the US dollar trader push the NZD/USD below the .6800 level and aim for the Kiwi bids around .6690, a level defended by the 50.0 Fib of the .5914-.7466 NZD rally, with a further break to the downside testing New Zealand dollar defenses around .6615, a level marked by the July 19, 2004 daily high. A further break to the downside will most likely see the pair take on the NZD defenses around .6507, a level established by the 61.8 Fib of the .5914-.7466 NZD rally which acts as a gateway toward the psychologically important .6500 handle. Indicators are favoring US dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.