For today's Mid-Day Minute, Mike writes: Now that the E-mini June S&P has given back half of its earlier upmove and has failed again to hurdle critical resistance at 1183-1185, let's turn our attention to the bond market, which has its sights set on Friday's important employment data. The March Employment Report could be a significant turning point for the 10-year yields.  Stronger than expected job growth could trigger powerful unside follow-through in yield towards my next target zone of 4.90%-5.00%, largely a reaction to fears that the FOMC will need to move to 50 bps rate hikes to thwart both commodity and wage-growth inflation.  Conversely, a weak jobs report could keep the Fed's moves at the "measured" pace of 25 bps.  In the absence of any noticeable acceleration in wage inflation, Wall Street might conclude that the FOMC will need only one or two more hikes to complete the current cycle, and as a result press the 10-year yield lower.

Mike Paulenoff is a 25-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his E-mini S&P and QQQQ technical analysis and trading alerts. For more of Mike Paulenoff, sign up for a FREE 30-Day Trial to his E-Mini/Index Futures diary, or try his QQQ Trading Diary.