After posting the BIG picture chart of the Q's, I decided to look at a major subset of the technology sector- the SMH... and frankly, I come up with the same sort of outlook. On Jan. 12th, at 40.64, the SMH appears to have completed a 17 month upside traverse of its rising price channel. All of the action since 1/12 represents the "journey" across the channel that eventually will end with a test of the lower channel support line, now at 33.85. Yes, despite the feel-good rally today, and suspicion that the Fed might have to cease and desist (and maybe reverse course), my technical work in the SMH leaves much to be desired on an intermediate term basis. At this juncture, if the SMH breaks this week's low at 37.63, my work will expect acceleration to the downside towards the lower channel support line.

MJP 01/27/06

Mike Paulenoff is a 25-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his E-mini S&P and QQQQ technical analysis and trading alerts. For more of Mike Paulenoff, sign up for a FREE 30-Day Trial to his E-Mini/Index Futures diary, or try his QQQ Trading Diary.