EUR/USD - The pre-holiday range-bound price action which restrained both bulls and bears in thin liquidity was finally broken yesterday with the return of many market players.   With the tremendous euro rally against the US dollar, the single currency broke many technically significant levels.  Over the period of a day, the EUR/USD pair has penetrated both the 20 and 50-day SMAs, while also taking out both the 38.2 fib of the September 5th to November 15th greenback rally and a falling trendline from March.   Bears have already stepped up to take the wind out of the rally with near resistance being tested with the former daily highs of November 2nd and 3rd at 1.2085.  This level will be further backed by the 50.0 fib of the same rally mentioned above.  The serious mark of resistance remains around 1.2225 - the confluence of both the 61.8 fib and 200-day SMA.  Both the range top and bottom of the past two week's price action, at 1.1905 and 1.1800, will give bulls a boost of confidence and the over-two-year low at 1.1640 will be a difficult support to breach.  Indicators climbed along with the euro run.  Both the stochs and RSI kept in neutral territory along with the ATR.  The MACD however has made initial steps into a positive move but momentum is not backing the read.

USD/JPY - Yen bulls have already cleared the 116.00-hurdle and are now confronted with the Swing low on December 19 at 115.53.  This level stands on its own volition, so a break could be found if the bulls have something to post a rally on.  If this level break, there will be little dollar support until the 113.75/114 level where a strong 38.2 fib stands with the spike low high from July 20th.  If dollar-backers can bandy a comeback, their sights will be set first on the 50-day SMA 15 pips above the much-watched 118 level.  A break beyond this level will cause Yen traders to shy away from bidding their currency while the dollar continues to run to a 119.15 flipping support/resistance level.  Real indecision will not be presented until the over two-year high comes back into market makers' purviews up around 121.40.  Indicators still float precariously for the USD/JPY despite the big move. Stochs and RSI are both neutral with little help from the negative MACD and wavering downside momentum and ATR high.  The trend is well-intact however with the ADX indicator still riding high, but making its way lower.

GBP/USD - The ever-volatile British Pound has not disappointed bulls waiting for a retracement with follow through after the US dollar has dominated the pair since mid-December.  After breaking the 23.6 fib at 1.7395, which was presenting bulls with a tangible yet formerly unconquerable level, sterling bulls were back on top.  Currently the GBP/USD pair is hovering above the 20-day and 50-day SMA, the later of which the pair has only crossed four-times in six-months; so a continuation is the more probably move over the coming days and weeks.  On the way up, the 38.6 fib at 1.7600 could offer a chance for dollar retracement.   However, the real test is with the range high through most of December at 1.7800.  If the dollar can break recent history and cross back below the 20, and 50-day SMA, the former resistance with the 23.6 fib at 1.7395 will be the first line of support.  A move further to the two-year low around 1.7050 will stand as the next nearest solid level of defense for dollar-bulls.  Indicators were little affected by the pound rally.  Both the MACD and momentum are baking a possible cool-down period before any potential second coming, but the short-term stochs are building steam beneath the oversold line.

USD/CHF - The break in the Swiss Franc's favor has breached strong technical levels and the single currency still has room to wiggle against the benchmark greenback.  After a break in the 20 and 50-day SMA as well as the 38.2 fib, it seems a dry spell in volume finally did-in the strong move.   A move in the USD/CHF lower to the 50.0 fib at 1.2761 is a likely goal and its confluence with the spike low on the 14th of December will make it a difficult level for swissie bulls to take.  A little further below this support level is the lumbering 200-day SMA which is backed by multiple tests of 3 month lows, so watch for this level to be a deciding point for the next leg of the ever progressing trend.  If the dollar can collect itself, they will first have to face the 50-day SMA which they relinquished not a day before, but which now offers sturdy resistance.  Moving beyond this would be slow moving with multiple days' highs making it a net for any Dollar move going ahead.  USD/CHF indicators are lining up for a continued move for the swissie.  Most poignantly, stochs are about to cross out of their oversold status with the trend and momentum taking its side.  The RSI also has room to maneuver before dipping to oversold and ATR is still neutral.

USD/CAD - A 20-day SMA could not hold the strength loonie-bulls moved on to drive the USD/CAD over 100 pips lower to test the former swing low set in the first days of December.  While the near low at 1.1535 is glaring, it could easily be overtaken for a run to the even 1.1500 level for a dollar battle.  Just beyond the solid level, a stiff 13-year low will see lots of dollar bidding for traders gobbling up the currency while expected a double bottom and a great place to enter the greenback against an overdrawn Canadian currency.  For resistance, the 20-day SMA will be the first level for the dollar comeback, which could be slow going with the usual choppy trading of the USD/CAD pair.  Most resistance for the pair will come with around the 1.1750 level where the month of December made multiple attempts to move higher to no avail; while a 23.6 fib worked well in battering the pair back off the level.  Indicators are still on the loonie's side, but they are beginning to show signs of hesitancy.  The stochs and RSI are still falling towards oversold levels, but have quite a ways to go.  The MACD and Momentum are still negative but are beginning to bump higher.  Probably the most troublesome indicator for a continued loonie run lies with the ADX which is no longer supporting the long sustained trend held for most of the Canadian dollar's run.

AUD/USD - Unlike the other majors, the brake for the Aussie dollar above the 20 and 50-day SMA in its undaunted 5 session run up means little.   Both averages have been breached in choppy, range-bound price action to effectively bump down the indicator's importance.  A continuation would not be hard to technically muster for Aussie bulls; but the significance of the approaching flipping support/resistance level at 0.7455, which has gone back for six months, will be harder fought for.  Further up and only a gleam in Aussie bulls' eyes right now is the 200-day SMA at 0.7569 - lining up with the swing high of December 14th to make it an important level to watch.  A US dollar turn will have to fight for the 50.0 fib just overtaken at 0.7385, which was also the swing low for July.  Indicators are largely backing the Aussie's charge forward.  The stochs have just moved out of the oversold band with the move while the MACD continues to gain its footing.  Momentum is still strong, but the ATR and trend indicators are beginning to soften on the back of this most recent rally.

NZD/USD -  The kiwi was the only currency that didn't participate in the exuberance of dollar bears across all the majors.  No new ground was covered with the range of the day's bar.  A move higher was likely not in the cards for the single currency with the 38.2 fib of the 0.5914 - 0.7468 kiwi rally lining up with the 20-day SMA to hold off any further advancement for the pair.  The currency bar has already pushed within pips of this level and backed off with bets paring off around even, to keep the pair in a stalemate.  If this near-by fib is broken, an unfettered move to the 200-day SMA around 0.7000 could be in order.  If, on the other hand, this level cannot be breached; the US dollar could eventually run to 06690 representing the 50.0 fib of the same rally.  A strong opposition will be made at this level with it also being a 15 month low.  Despite the technical analysis on price action, indicators are throwing their support behind the kiwi.  Stochs just passed out of the oversold area to match the MACD's early turn and momentum's long run towards positive territory.  RSI and ATR, while not contributing towards the run are also doing little to hinder it.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.